Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14e0…6e09 world 42 markets active 1h ago coverage 447d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +49% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$2
other 26% $0
politics 8% $0
crypto 7% +$1
sports 4% +$1
tech 4% $0
economics 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 12 +162.3% +137.3% 25% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 12 +162.3% +137.3% 25% 8% -10.4%
all 41 +48.6% +34.4% 34% 5% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +34.4% 5% -9.5%
10% +21.6% 5% -18.2%
15% +9.8% 2% -26.1%
20% -1.0% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +49% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +94% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

447d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage447d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 01 $33 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $32 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $36 +$2 +6%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $35 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $34 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $38 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $35 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $2 −$1 -33%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $5 $0 -2%
Will 'Seiko' win Crunchyroll's Best Supporting Character Award for 202 May 21 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 20 $15 $0 +2%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? May 17 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? May 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec May 13 $16 $0 +1%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 12 $15 $0 -0%
Will egg prices be less than $4.75 in April? May 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? May 11 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 10 $16 $0 -0%
Will annual inflation increase by 2.6% in April? May 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 09 $8 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? May 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in May? May 08 $16 +$1 +4%
Will Israel qualify for the Eurovision 2025 grand final? May 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Fridolin Ambongo Besungu be the next pope? May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will federal spending decrease by $500-750b between Q4 2024 and Q2 202 May 07 $15 $0 -0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 06 $15 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after May 2025 meeting? May 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will PRO win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 May 05 $1 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? May 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 05 $16 +$1 +8%
Will the Environmental Protection Agency be most efficient on March 31 Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump sign an executive order on March 26? Mar 28 $15 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $32 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $2 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes $0 14d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $2 15d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes $1 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $9 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $24 15d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $33 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $11 15d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 16d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $32 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $3 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $30 16d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $33 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $32 17d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $32 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $35 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 19d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $36 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes $3 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes $3 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.76 · official $31.76 (match) · 135 history records