Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T17:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14df…85cc
crypto · 477 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$19 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$19 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses298 / 179
Open positions0
Markets (closed)477 / 477
History coverage84d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 0 History 477 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$25
14 days+$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 51¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 98% −$12
other 2% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $3 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $3 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Up 87¢ $3 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 84¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +58%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -21.9% -29.3% 42% 42% -26.2%
≤30d 285 -1.0% -10.5% 50% 50% -11.5%
≤90d 477 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 58% -12.4%
all 477 -3.6% -12.8% 62% 58% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 58% -12.4%
10% -21.2% 33% -20.8%
15% -28.8% 31% -28.4%
20% -35.8% 30% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 816 history records