Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:33:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14df…30b2 sports 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 179d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$446 (-2%) realized −$442 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate59%60W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$466now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$73
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$1,024
other 35% +$851
world 5% −$316
tech 1% +$12
economics 1% +$2
crypto 0% $0
politics 0% $0
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -44.0% -49.3% 50% 50% -8.9%
≤30d 9 +84.8% +67.2% 56% 44% -10.0%
≤90d 53 +7.9% -2.4% 57% 30% -8.5%
all 101 +3.6% -6.2% 59% 40% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 40% -11.8%
10% -15.2% 19% -20.3%
15% -23.4% 10% -28.0%
20% -30.9% 9% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$83 vs −$133 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

179d coverage
Net worth$466
Realized−$442
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses60 / 41
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions5
Markets (closed)101 / 106
History coverage179d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? No 88¢ 88¢ $264 $262 −$2 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 81¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 86¢ 86¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $268 +$32 +12%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $271 +$29 +11%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $209 +$41 +20%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $191 −$189 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $123 −$120 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $29 +$321 +1116%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $48 +$2 +4%
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland May 30 $94 −$93 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 26 $111 −$110 -99%
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? May 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $265 +$35 +13%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 19 $238 −$237 -99%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 15 $8 −$8 -96%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? May 15 $148 +$2 +1%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $121 +$29 +24%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 09 $101 −$99 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 09 $289 −$287 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $133 −$130 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 07 $194 −$190 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? May 05 $393 +$57 +14%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $156 +$644 +414%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 04 $148 −$144 -97%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $89 +$211 +238%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $155 +$45 +29%
LoL: Team WE vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $365 +$35 +10%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Arthur Fils May 01 $342 +$58 +17%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 01 $40 $0 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $98 +$2 +2%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group A May 01 $373 +$27 +7%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Apr 29 $192 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 25 $113 −$110 -97%
Will Burnley FC win on 2026-04-22? Apr 25 $289 +$12 +4%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 19 $136 −$132 -97%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 19 $272 +$79 +29%
Will Çaykur Rizespor win on 2026-04-17? Apr 17 $136 −$132 -97%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-04-13? Apr 17 $115 +$585 +509%
Nets vs. Raptors Apr 13 $196 +$5 +3%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Alexander Zverev vs Jannik Sinner Apr 12 $210 +$39 +18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 11 $6 −$5 -96%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Valentin Vacherot Apr 11 $58 −$56 -97%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 11 $285 +$15 +5%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2026-04-06? Apr 08 $318 +$31 +10%
Connecticut Huskies vs. Michigan Wolverines Apr 06 $193 −$189 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 06 $178 −$3 -2%
Pistons vs. 76ers Apr 06 $203 +$143 +70%
Jazz vs. Thunder Apr 04 $61 −$59 -97%
76ers vs. Wizards Apr 04 $372 +$27 +7%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 31 $475 +$25 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 88¢ $265 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 86¢ $9 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 10¢ $31 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $268 6d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 90¢ $271 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $209 15d
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 BUY Astralis 63¢ $191 18d
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev BUY Flavio Cobolli 20¢ $123 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $51 18d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-03? BUY Yes $29 22d
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $50 22d
World Championships: Canada vs. Finland BUY Canada 62¢ $94 26d
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 55¢ $111 30d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31? BUY Yes $3 30d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-23? BUY No 88¢ $265 33d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $48 35d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY No 79¢ $238 37d
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? BUY Yes $8 41d
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-05-11? BUY No 80¢ $121 45d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 22¢ $101 47d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 82¢ $289 47d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 13¢ $133 49d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Timberwolves 38¢ $194 49d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 84¢ $42 52d
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $148 52d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY No 87¢ $393 52d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 12¢ $25 52d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? BUY Yes 19¢ $156 52d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Lakers 12¢ $123 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $466.44 · official $466.44 (match) · 195 history records