Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14dc…9011 crypto 817 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 11d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (246 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,988 (-7%) realized −$6,986 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate56%689W / 534L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day246.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,781
sports 0% +$61
other 0% −$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (246 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-40.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 820 -51.9% -56.5% 42% 20% -44.1%
≤30d 1223 -34.3% -40.6% 56% 32% -30.1%
≤90d 1223 -34.3% -40.6% 56% 32% -30.1%
all 1223 -34.3% -40.6% 56% 32% -30.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover246.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -40.6% 32% -30.1%
10% ← realistic here -46.3% 10% -36.8%
15% -51.5% 3% -42.9%
20% -56.2% 1% -48.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -70% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$78 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$6,986
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses689 / 534
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1223 / 817
History coverage11d ⚠
Avg bet$123
Trades / day246.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1223 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Algeria 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $135 −$135 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 16 $72 −$72 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 16 $117 −$117 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $150 −$150 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $129 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $66 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $61 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $53 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $74 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $128 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $9 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $77 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $129 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $129 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $108 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $128 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $129 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $86 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $129 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $128 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.43 · official $61.43 · 3500 history records