Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:54:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d9…d708 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 19d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$180 (-5%) realized −$179 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate45%23W / 28L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$299now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$378
7 days−$373
14 days−$378
30 days−$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$410
tech 6% +$33
other 4% −$36
weather 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 -9.0% -17.7% 56% 56% -21.9%
≤30d 51 -19.4% -27.1% 45% 45% -23.0%
≤90d 51 -19.4% -27.1% 45% 45% -23.0%
all 51 -19.4% -27.1% 45% 45% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 45% -23.0%
10% -34.1% 37% -30.4%
15% -40.4% 29% -37.1%
20% -46.3% 18% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$31 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$299
Realized−$179
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses23 / 28
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage19d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 22 above $350? No 51¢ 69¢ $100 $136 +$36 (+36%)
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 22 2026? No 80¢ 78¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $550 Week of June 22 2026? No 69¢ 46¢ $100 $66 −$34 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $153 +$46 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$20 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$50 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $41 +$17 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $21 +$11 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET Jun 24 $20 +$7 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $407 −$73 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $254 +$32 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $413 −$26 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $411 −$300 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $52 +$14 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 24 $36 −$33 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 24 $72 −$70 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $83 +$30 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 24 $46 +$30 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 24 $40 +$7 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $140 −$99 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $62 −$60 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $93 +$62 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $72 +$68 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $21 −$17 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $53 +$30 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $41 +$19 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 23 $31 +$12 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$19 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $46 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$5 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 22 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $11 −$4 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +107%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 11 $2 +$3 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 11 $3 +$9 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 08 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 08 $10 +$9 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 06 $5 −$5 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $21 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $198 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $51 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $61 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $21 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $20 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $126 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $321 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $50 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $299.07 · official $299.09 (match) · 188 history records