Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:14:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d8…e8f2 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$8,397 (+28%) realized +$8,397 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$1,902per market
Trades / day135.9pace
Fees−$353est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$13,970
other 19% −$5,735
crypto 5% +$584
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +20.8%
≤30d 16 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +20.8%
≤90d 16 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +20.8%
all 16 +5.4% -4.6% 44% 44% +20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover135.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.6% 44% +20.8%
10% -13.7% 44% +9.2%
15% ← realistic here -22.1% 44% -1.3%
20% -29.7% 44% -11.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late -45% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,608 vs −$1,048 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.93 per $1 lost it wins $1.93
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,397
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$353
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage3d
Avg bet$1,902
Trades / day135.9
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $12 −$12 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $4,564 −$335 -7%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $2,824 −$2,706 -96%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $864 −$864 -100%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4,579 +$4,000 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 19 $99 −$96 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4PM ET Jun 19 $551 −$521 -95%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $4,924 +$5,125 +104%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $80 +$40 +50%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $4,995 +$4,955 +99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $16 −$15 -97%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,984 −$3,984 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,124 +$2,932 +261%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $904 −$900 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $656 +$546 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $257 +$656 +255%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No $12 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $284 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $299 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $299 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $0 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $198 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $314 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $318 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 65¢ $7 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $1 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $155 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 78¢ $181 2h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 85¢ $222 2h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $200 4h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $0 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $116 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY No 41¢ $2,706 5h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $26 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $3 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $4 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $11 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $362 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $4 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $1 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $86 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 42¢ $9 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 464 history records