Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:46:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d4…f4f5 politics 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$211 (+30%) realized +$40 · open +$171
Gross ROI / mkt -54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -59% what you keep after slip
Net edge-59%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%1W / 3L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$668now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 84d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% +$289
world 11% −$71
economics 6% −$46
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-58.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 4 -54.3% -58.6% 25% 25% -9.1%
all 4 -54.3% -58.6% 25% 25% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -58.6% 25% -9.1%
10% -62.6% 25% -17.8%
15% -66.2% 25% -25.7%
20% -69.5% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -54% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$31 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$668
Realized+$40
Unrealized+$171
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses1 / 3
Open positions5
Markets (closed)4 / 9
History coverage84d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $294 $578 +$284 (+96%)
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $122 $36 −$86 (-71%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $5 −$25 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? Apr 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 Apr 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 10 $43 −$43 -100%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 07 $112 +$93 +83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $63 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 1h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $3 2h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $9 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $19 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $6 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $4 3h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 5h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 5h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 6h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $75 7h
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $16 6d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $15 7d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $28 9d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $31 9d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $0 62d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $1 62d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $7 62d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY Yes $21 62d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $30 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $667.98 · official $669.80 (match) · 108 history records