trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤90d | 4 | -54.3% | -58.6% | 25% | 25% | -9.1% |
| all | 4 | -54.3% | -58.6% | 25% | 25% | -9.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -58.6% | 25% | -9.1% |
| 10% | -62.6% | 25% | -17.8% |
| 15% | -66.2% | 25% | -25.7% |
| 20% | -69.5% | 25% | -33.0% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 2¢ | 3¢ | $294 | $578 | +$284 (+96%) |
| Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 4¢ | 1¢ | $122 | $36 | −$86 (-71%) |
| Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $30 | $29 | −$1 (-3%) |
| Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 5¢ | 5¢ | $21 | $21 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 0¢ | 0¢ | $30 | $5 | −$25 (-83%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Apr 16 | $46 | −$46 | -100% |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 | Apr 16 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me | Apr 10 | $43 | −$43 | -100% |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Apr 07 | $112 | +$93 | +83% |