Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:08:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d2…da07 crypto 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$29 (-9%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day26.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 38% -39.2%
≤30d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 38% -39.2%
≤90d 8 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 38% -39.2%
all 8 -7.6% -16.4% 50% 38% -39.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 38% -39.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 38% -45.0%
15% -31.7% 38% -50.3%
20% -38.4% 38% -55.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 69% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$47 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage1d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day26.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 24 $41 +$35 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 24 $21 +$21 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $53 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $52 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $37 −$35 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$22 +143%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $76 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $42 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $38 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 32¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records