Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:14:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14d0…fa03 other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$958 (-1%) realized −$958 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate21%25W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,078per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$150
politics 33% −$197
sports 12% −$882
culture 2% −$3
economics 2% +$3
crypto 1% $0
world 1% −$12
finance 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 46 -2.3% -11.6% 9% 0% -11.7%
all 120 -0.8% -10.3% 21% 10% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 10% -10.2%
10% -18.9% 10% -18.8%
15% -26.7% 9% -26.6%
20% -33.9% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,358) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +17% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$52 vs −$25 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$958
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses25 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage154d
Avg bet$1,078
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $669 $670 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $211 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 27 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 27 $426 −$1 -0%
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 26 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 21 $518 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 20 $212 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $2,375 −$3 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 17 $556 +$2 +0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,779 −$3 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $798 −$1 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $714 −$1 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $2,085 −$3 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $733 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 07 $704 −$1 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,116 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $814 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $1,036 −$2 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $907 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in May? Jun 02 $362 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $747 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $726 −$1 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 27 $678 −$1 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $1,024 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $820 −$1 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $694 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $316 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $820 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $10,432 −$12 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 07 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $1,564 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,567 −$2 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $3,075 −$3 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $1,545 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $650 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $871 +$2 +0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6,777 −$7 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,314 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,464 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $2,266 −$2 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $5,360 −$5 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 12 $122 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Apr 10 $1,527 −$1,527 -100%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $1,648 −$2 -0%
EdgeX FDV above $10B one day after launch? Apr 07 $34 $0 +1%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-14? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 23? Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 9? Mar 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $211 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $211 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $615 3h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $616 6h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $426 7h
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $426 9h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $365 23h
Will the Tennessee Titans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $366 27h
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $214 6d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $214 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $212 7d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $212 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $633 7d
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $634 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $303 7d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $303 7d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $669 10d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $895 12d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $896 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $813 13d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $814 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $797 14d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $798 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $712 15d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $714 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $928 15d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $930 15d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $732 16d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $733 16d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $703 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $669.53 · official $669.53 (match) · 383 history records