Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:40:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
14 0x14d0…bb79 other 67 markets active 0h ago coverage 605d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$131 (+1%) realized +$131 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate29%19W / 47L
Drawdown18%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$87now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 64% −$14
other 18% +$2
politics 13% −$7
tech 2% $0
crypto 2% +$2
sports 1% +$145
finance 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 53 +14.7% +3.8% 30% 23% -7.4%
all 66 +11.6% +0.9% 29% 18% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 18% -9.0%
10% -8.7% 18% -17.7%
15% -17.5% 15% -25.6%
20% -25.6% 15% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$1 · ×9.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

605d coverage
Net worth$87
Realized+$131
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses19 / 47
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage605d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown18%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $87 $87 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $37 $0 -0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $266 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $144 $0 +0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $259 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $25 $0 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 29 $32 $0 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 24 $40 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 18 $213 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $216 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Baltimore Orioles May 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 11 $222 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 08 $216 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 07 $214 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 06 $225 $0 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $233 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 25 $211 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $442 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $232 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $225 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $434 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $234 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 23 $214 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $215 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $224 $0 -0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 16 $220 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 16 $214 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 15 $230 $0 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Apr 15 $237 $0 -0%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 −$9 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 09 $7 +$4 +55%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $11 +$7 +62%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 09 $14 +$12 +86%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-07? Apr 08 $23 +$6 +24%
Lightning vs. Sabres Apr 07 $7 +$7 +104%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $18 +$6 +31%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $14 +$15 +105%
EdgeX FDV above $3B one day after launch? Apr 06 $25 +$1 +4%
Hurricanes vs. Blue Jackets Apr 06 $24 +$20 +82%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 06 $49 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. Hornets Mar 31 $24 +$22 +92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 10m
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $43 29h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $43 32h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $87 4d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Bernard Cazeneuve win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $39 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $39 7d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $49 8d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $49 8d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $41 11d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $29 13d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $43 15d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $38 16d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $32 19d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $32 21d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $40 24d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $40 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $36 24d
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $36 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $86.58 · official $86.58 (match) · 275 history records