Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14cd…6a53 world 22 markets active 2h ago coverage 459d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate33%7W / 14L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% $0
other 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% +$1
politics 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 9 +2.4% -7.4% 11% 11% -9.5%
≤90d 9 +2.4% -7.4% 11% 11% -9.5%
all 21 -3.2% -12.4% 33% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 5% -9.3%
10% -20.8% 5% -18.0%
15% -28.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -35.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

459d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses7 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)21 / 22
History coverage459d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 21 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 80¢ 81¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $33 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $41 −$2 -4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $32 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $8 +$2 +26%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Dec 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Alexis Ohanian buy TikTok before July? Jun 24 $10 +$1 +5%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 20 $2 $0 +4%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 23 $10 $0 -1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? Apr 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? Apr 17 $10 $0 -0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Mar 28 $3 $0 -8%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $10 $0 +4%
Norfolk State vs. Florida Mar 23 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $18 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 80¢ $34 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $26 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $26 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $30 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $0 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $11 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $3 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $9 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 17¢ $6 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $24 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $28 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 10d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $32 10d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $32 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $18 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $14 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $5 12d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $27 12d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.10 · official $8.10 (match) · 62 history records