Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:04:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14cb…3466 crypto 1140 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 83d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$16,061 (-10%) realized −$16,061 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%624W / 516L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$145per market
Trades / day28.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$894
7 days−$2,449
14 days−$3,262
30 days−$2,572
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$16,664
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -11.9% -20.3% 44% 40% -39.5%
≤30d 274 -0.2% -9.7% 51% 47% -17.1%
≤90d 1140 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 48% -18.6%
all 1140 -2.7% -12.0% 55% 48% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 48% -18.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 40% -26.4%
15% -28.1% 36% -33.5%
20% -35.1% 31% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$138 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16,061
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses624 / 516
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1140 / 1140
History coverage84d ⚠
Avg bet$145
Trades / day28.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1140 Trades
no open positions (194 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $73 +$94 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $413 +$316 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$15 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$90 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $83 −$74 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $78 +$72 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $47 −$41 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $81 +$70 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $42 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $40 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 17 $155 +$146 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $21 +$14 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $31 +$69 +218%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $78 +$69 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $86 +$31 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $38 +$78 +203%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $41 +$41 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$16 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $188 +$288 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 16 $105 −$96 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $40 −$30 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$39 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $35 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $207 +$182 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $42 +$56 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $51 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $103 +$77 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$23 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $101 +$118 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$55 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $32 +$25 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $144 +$131 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 16 $83 −$78 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 13 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 13 $42 −$17 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$26 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $307 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $198 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $158 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $13 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 5¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $47 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $31 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $24 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $31 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $124 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $36 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $41 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $31 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records