Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ca…8f43 sports 164 markets active 1h ago coverage 133d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$176 (-5%) realized −$416 · open +$240
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%47W / 115L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$195
14 days−$234
30 days−$181
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$16
other 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 +18.0% +6.8% 31% 31% -19.5%
≤30d 79 -18.8% -26.5% 24% 24% -14.7%
≤90d 89 -15.7% -23.7% 30% 30% -14.5%
all 162 -17.4% -25.3% 29% 29% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 29% -15.2%
10% -32.4% 27% -23.3%
15% -38.9% 23% -30.7%
20% -44.9% 21% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

133d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$416
Unrealized+$240
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses47 / 115
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions2
Markets (closed)162 / 164
History coverage133d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs TDK 26¢ 100¢ $78 $300 +$222 (+284%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs KOLESIE 37¢ 45¢ $85 $104 +$18 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 103 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $134 −$132 -99%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South Jun 20 $94 −$94 -100%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $98 +$206 +209%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $84 −$82 -98%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $99 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $45 −$44 -98%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $166 +$148 +90%
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $30 −$29 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs Jun 18 $104 +$180 +172%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 18 $44 −$43 -98%
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 18 $83 −$81 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $126 −$123 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $38 −$37 -98%
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) Jun 17 $61 −$60 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International China Jun 16 $28 +$107 +388%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $38 +$98 +257%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $112 +$54 +48%
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Jun 16 $42 −$41 -98%
Counter-Strike: HOTU vs TDK (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 16 $55 −$54 -98%
Map Handicap: VP (-1.5) vs INOX Division (+1.5) Jun 15 $21 −$3 -13%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$7 -23%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 +$27 +510%
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs HEROIC Academy (+1.5) Jun 15 $17 +$15 +93%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $3 +$31 +982%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $24 +$16 +65%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 15 $32 +$16 +52%
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) Jun 14 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $24 −$24 -99%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs Festina Lente (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 −$8 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs KT Rolster (+1.5) Jun 13 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -98%
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs F5 Esports (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playoffs Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $48 +$16 +34%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 08 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs BALU (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Jun 08 $4 −$4 -97%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 05 $726 −$48 -7%
LoL: MVK Esports vs GAM Esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $301 +$283 +94%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner Jun 04 $60 −$59 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 03 $8 −$8 -97%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Barça eSports - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $39 −$38 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League S BUY KOLESIE 37¢ $87 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 26¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo BUY TDK 26¢ $78 1h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 42¢ $19 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 42¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 1 Winner BUY Grind Back 42¢ $109 2h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 31¢ $38 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 31¢ $19 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 31¢ $19 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 31¢ $11 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 31¢ $2 6h
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Yangon Galacticos (BO3) - The International South BUY Yangon Galacticos 31¢ $5 6h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $39 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY EDward Gaming 26¢ $84 22h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 32¢ $59 23h
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $99 24h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed BUY SHISHKA 24¢ $45 24h
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A BUY Amaru Gaming 52¢ $166 28h
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regu BUY Stray Kittens 33¢ $41 34h
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout BUY Mentality Monster 23¢ $38 38h
Counter-Strike: 100 Thieves vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Leo Team 19¢ $30 42h
Games Total: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 26¢ $44 2d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 36¢ $104 2d
Game Handicap: T1.A (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY T1 Academy 37¢ $83 2d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 43¢ $126 2d
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo BUY Nongshim Esports Academy 14¢ $38 2d
Game Handicap: KT.C (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA Challengers (+1.5) BUY KT Rolster Challengers 32¢ $61 3d
Map Handicap: KOL (-1.5) vs GenOne (+1.5) BUY KOLESIE 27¢ $26 3d
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Yakult Brothers 28¢ $38 3d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 2 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 67¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.35 · official $403.35 (match) · 289 history records