Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:11:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14c8…37e0
world · 32 markets active 1h ago
2.0score
+$3 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$3 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses8 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)32 / 32
History coverage258d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit84%
Chart Positions 0 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $49 +$1 +1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 13 $34 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $64 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $42 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $24 $0 +0%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Oct 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 12 $27 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 12 $23 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 12 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Oct 11 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 11 $4 $0 -0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 10 $6 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Oct 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $5 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 10 $23 $0 -1%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 09 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $100k in October? Oct 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 02 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 30 $26 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 30 $26 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Cristian Popescu Piedone be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 39% +$3
politics 23% $0
sports 14% $0
other 12% $0
crypto 7% $0
culture 4% $0
economics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $49 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $49 2h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $35 7h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $34 9h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $2 19h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 79¢ $17 27h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 80¢ $18 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $20 38h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $20 40h
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $26 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $30 3d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $36 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $42 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $4 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $38 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $22 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $20 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $42 5d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $0 174d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $10 238d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $15 238d
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 239d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $24 243d
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? SELL Yes 94¢ $25 243d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 0% -8.6%
≤30d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 8 +1.3% -8.3% 62% 0% -8.6%
all 32 +0.3% -9.3% 25% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -18.0% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 91 history records