Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14c6…bb75 politics 70 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$32 (-1%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%8W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 53% −$26
sports 20% −$2
other 16% −$1
crypto 4% −$2
culture 4% $0
economics 2% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-17.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 25% 0% -9.6%
all 69 -8.7% -17.4% 12% 0% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.4% 0% -10.2%
10% -25.3% 0% -18.8%
15% -32.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -39.1% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.24 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses8 / 61
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage268d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $52 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 30 $54 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 05 $1 $0 -10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 04 $52 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 27 $55 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? Feb 10 $54 $0 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 05 $57 $0 -1%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 30 $56 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? Jan 26 $55 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 24 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bournemouth win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 23 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 21 $56 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 14 $255 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 13 $56 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jan 09 $225 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 07 $55 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 05 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 31 $2 $0 -12%
Will Jesus Christ return in 2025? Dec 28 $1 $0 -63%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22? Dec 26 $55 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 25 $6 −$1 -10%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 23 $65 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 23 $2 $0 -12%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 20 $58 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 18? Dec 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 18 $58 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 16 $59 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 13? Dec 14 $57 $0 +0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 12 $1 $0 -14%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 10 $1 $0 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025 Dec 09 $57 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 09 $66 $0 -1%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 05 $1 $0 -17%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 01 $61 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $62 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 28 $123 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $61 $0 +0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 21 $62 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $52 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $52 7d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $52 8d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 11d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 11d
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 18d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $55 101d
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $55 103d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 103d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 104d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 107d
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 109d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $54 109d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 111d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 8? BUY No 100¢ $54 128d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 131d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 136d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 137d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $56 138d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $56 139d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $56 140d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? SELL No 100¢ $55 141d
Will Trump nominate no one before 2027? BUY No 100¢ $55 142d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.79 · official $0.79 (match) · 261 history records