Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:37:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14c6…4b4b sports 45 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$84 (+5%) realized +$103 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate55%22W / 18L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$171now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$201
7 days−$128
14 days+$66
30 days+$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$9
other 26% +$21
crypto 3% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.1% -24.1% 40% 33% -20.9%
≤30d 40 +2.5% -7.3% 55% 48% -5.3%
≤90d 40 +2.5% -7.3% 55% 48% -5.3%
all 40 +2.5% -7.3% 55% 48% -5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.3% 48% -5.3%
10% -16.2% 38% -14.4%
15% -24.3% 38% -22.7%
20% -31.7% 28% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +26% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$17 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$171
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses22 / 18
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions5
Markets (closed)40 / 45
History coverage10d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys Quentin Halys 58¢ 57¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev Alexander Zverev 87¢ 88¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs Ugo Humbert 63¢ 62¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 74¢ 38¢ $30 $16 −$14 (-48%)
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? No 82¢ 64¢ $20 $15 −$5 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Nivelles: Eric Vanshelboim vs Niklas Schell Jun 29 $66 −$13 -20%
Wimbledon ATP: Denis Shapovalov vs Pablo Carreno Busta Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka Jun 29 $90 +$17 +18%
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper Jun 29 $20 −$1 -3%
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 29 $30 −$24 -79%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? Jun 29 $30 −$1 -3%
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Jun 29 $25 +$1 +6%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $25 −$4 -16%
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm Jun 29 $25 −$3 -13%
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin Jun 29 $25 −$10 -40%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $39 $0 -1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $36 +$21 +59%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 28 $33 +$16 +48%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $7 −$7 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $72 −$68 -94%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $30 +$25 +83%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 28 $61 +$24 +40%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 28 $30 −$30 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Linda Noskova Jun 28 $46 −$46 -100%
England vs. Ghana: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $30 −$1 -4%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Draw at halftime? Jun 25 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $33 +$5 +16%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $30 +$11 +36%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 +$3 +10%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $30 +$6 +21%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $30 +$32 +105%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $50 +$6 +12%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 +$30 +97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $30 +$12 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$16 +52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$36 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $116 +$10 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 +$20 +65%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $30 +$31 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY No 82¢ $20 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $30 1h
ITF Nivelles: Eric Vanshelboim vs Niklas Schell SELL Eric Vanshelboim 50¢ $52 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $5 4h
ITF Nivelles: Eric Vanshelboim vs Niklas Schell BUY Eric Vanshelboim 55¢ $20 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 87¢ $25 4h
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 58¢ $30 4h
ITF Nivelles: Eric Vanshelboim vs Niklas Schell BUY Eric Vanshelboim 55¢ $20 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Arnaldi vs Quentin Halys BUY Quentin Halys 58¢ $30 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka SELL Naomi Osaka 100¢ $107 5h
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper BUY Taylor Fritz 51¢ $10 7h
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper BUY Taylor Fritz 51¢ $10 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Elisabetta Cocciaretto 12¢ $6 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 54¢ $30 8h
ITF Nivelles: Eric Vanshelboim vs Niklas Schell BUY Eric Vanshelboim 75¢ $25 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL No 43¢ $10 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-30? SELL No 75¢ $29 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse SELL Ignacio Buse 55¢ $27 9h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $25 9h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $25 9h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska SELL Maja Chwalinska 77¢ $21 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm SELL Martin Damm 70¢ $22 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Andrey Rublev vs Roman Safiullin SELL Roman Safiullin 46¢ $15 9h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $15 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 51¢ $25 9h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 45¢ $39 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 87¢ $25 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Ugo Humbert vs Zizou Bergs BUY Ugo Humbert 63¢ $25 9h
Wimbledon WTA: Elsa Jacquemot vs Naomi Osaka BUY Naomi Osaka 84¢ $25 9h
Wimbledon ATP: Marco Trungelliti vs Martin Damm BUY Martin Damm 80¢ $25 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $170.61 · official $171.75 (match) · 103 history records