Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T16:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14c3…9055
sports · 765 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$414 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$539 · open +$94
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$304
Realized−$539
Unrealized+$94
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses350 / 403
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions58
Markets (closed)753 / 765
History coverage263d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%
Chart Positions 58 History 753 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 11¢ 80¢ $11 $81 +$69 (+610%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 11¢ 81¢ $9 $69 +$59 (+632%)
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Yes 29¢ 20¢ $29 $20 −$9 (-30%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-24%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 17¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$2 (-21%)
Will New York Liberty win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 20¢ $13 $9 −$4 (-31%)
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? No 96¢ 90¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? Yes 19¢ 14¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-29%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-11%)
Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? Yes 44¢ 38¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-15%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+23%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+14%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 64¢ 19¢ $10 $3 −$7 (-70%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-13%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-25%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 20¢ 20¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Devin Booker win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Stephen Curry win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kevin Durant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will LeBron James win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Jaylen Brown win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kawhi Leonard win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Cade Cunningham win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Paolo Banchero win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthony Edwards win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Anthony Davis win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ja Morant win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Trae Young win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Donovan Mitchell win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$3 +44%
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $3 −$2 -79%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 31 $2 −$2 -90%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $21 +$43 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $20 +$6 +32%
NBA Playoffs: Thunder vs. Spurs Total Games O/U 5.5 May 29 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 26 $5 +$1 +23%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 25 $41 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 24 $3 +$5 +161%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $14 +$6 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 22 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $7 +$3 +46%
NBA Playoffs: Knicks vs. Cavaliers Total Games O/U 5.5 May 20 $3 −$3 -99%
NHL Playoffs: Avalanche vs. Golden Knights Total Games O/U 5.5 May 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $2 +$3 +158%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 18 $22 +$10 +45%
Sabres vs. Canadiens May 17 $2 +$3 +140%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET May 16 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 16 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET May 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 16 $25 +$1 +5%
NBA Playoffs: Spurs vs. Timberwolves Total Games O/U 5.5 May 16 $4 +$6 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 16 $25 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET May 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 68% −$243
other 17% −$42
crypto 14% −$153
tech 0% −$3
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $7 36h
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 6d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 7d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 36¢ $31 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 12d
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12d
Will Moonshot have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12d
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $26 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $26 13d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 43¢ $26 13d
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 14d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -92.0% -92.8% 6% 6% +21.2%
≤30d 71 -22.5% -29.9% 44% 34% -13.8%
≤90d 261 -3.5% -12.7% 49% 43% -14.5%
all 753 -8.5% -17.2% 46% 44% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 44% -18.9%
10% -25.1% 41% -26.7%
15% -32.4% 36% -33.7%
20% -39.0% 30% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $304.27 · official $304.27 (match) · 1753 history records