Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:48:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
14 0x14be…3296 other 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,350 (+36%) realized +$4,349 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate54%21W / 18L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$297per market
Trades / day35.9pace
Fees−$162est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% +$6,576
other 47% −$1,840
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+37.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +52.3% +37.8% 54% 44% +27.4%
≤30d 39 +52.3% +37.8% 54% 44% +27.4%
≤90d 39 +52.3% +37.8% 54% 44% +27.4%
all 39 +52.3% +37.8% 54% 44% +27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.8% 44% +27.4%
10% ← realistic here +24.6% 41% +15.2%
15% +12.6% 31% +4.0%
20% +1.5% 28% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$513) neutral
Persistence
early +73% → late +33% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$383 vs −$184 · ×2.08 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.43 per $1 lost it wins $2.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$4,349
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses21 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$162
Open positions2
Markets (closed)39 / 41
History coverage5d
Avg bet$297
Trades / day35.9
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $229 +$360 +157%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $103 −$37 -36%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $154 +$19 +12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $514 −$480 -93%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? Jun 17 $51 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $730 +$551 +75%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $578 +$167 +29%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 16 $103 +$135 +132%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $103 +$64 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $93 −$47 -50%
Iraq vs. Norway: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $290 −$9 -3%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 1 Norway? Jun 16 $154 +$45 +29%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $103 +$33 +32%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $882 +$1,584 +180%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,483 +$831 +56%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $701 +$217 +31%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$22 +43%
Exact Score: France 0 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $51 +$47 +91%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $154 +$15 +10%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $153 +$382 +250%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $154 −$150 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $610 −$502 -82%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$23 +143%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $611 −$116 -19%
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Curaçao leading at halftime? Jun 14 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $137 −$133 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 −$141 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $81 −$79 -97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $513 −$482 -94%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,305 −$149 -11%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 +$5 +2%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $161 +$3,202 +1983%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $499 −$481 -96%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 13 $131 −$131 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $305 +$329 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $215 +$15 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 45m
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 3¢ $10 45m
Exact Score: Austria 0 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 46m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $590 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 7¢ $66 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $173 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $18 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 0¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $107 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $16 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $1 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 32¢ $0 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $51 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 4¢ $103 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? SELL Yes 4¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $103 2h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 5¢ $51 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 2h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $154 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $154 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $247 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.24 · official $31.24 (match) · 183 history records