Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:00:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
14 0x14bc…3904 sports 513 markets active 2h ago coverage 70d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,392 (+20%) realized +$4,472 · open −$80
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate41%181W / 264L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day17.9pace
Fees−$156est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$3,210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$46
14 days+$1,999
30 days+$4,256
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% +$3,940
other 27% +$918
world 18% −$385
politics 8% −$66
finance 6% −$82
tech 3% −$5
crypto 2% −$37
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.2% -9.7% 45% 18% -0.9%
≤30d 237 +20.1% +8.6% 31% 22% +26.1%
≤90d 445 +13.3% +2.5% 41% 30% +15.9%
all 445 +13.3% +2.5% 41% 30% +15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.5% 30% +15.9%
10% -7.3% 26% +4.8%
15% -16.2% 24% -5.3%
20% -24.4% 22% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +28% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +22% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$15 · ×3.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.12 per $1 lost it wins $2.12
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$3,210
Realized+$4,472
Unrealized−$80
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses181 / 264
Est. fees paid−$156
Open positions68
Markets (closed)445 / 513
History coverage70d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 68 History 445 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30? No 75¢ 79¢ $250 $262 +$12 (+5%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $228 $239 +$12 (+5%)
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $470 end of June? No 99¢ 100¢ $219 $221 +$2 (+1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 90¢ 97¢ $192 $209 +$16 (+9%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $180 $175 −$6 (-3%)
Will Hyperliquid reach $80 in June? No 80¢ 99¢ $136 $167 +$32 (+23%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in June? No 78¢ 99¢ $120 $152 +$32 (+26%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $120 $146 +$26 (+22%)
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? No 88¢ 99¢ $120 $135 +$15 (+12%)
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $171 $131 −$40 (-23%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $175 $129 −$46 (-26%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $126 $127 +$1 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 100¢ $111 $121 +$10 (+9%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $78 $99 +$21 (+27%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? No 51¢ 70¢ $66 $91 +$25 (+37%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 64¢ 100¢ $55 $86 +$31 (+56%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $104 $82 −$21 (-21%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 97¢ 99¢ $61 $62 +$1 (+2%)
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $55 $56 +$1 (+1%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? No 95¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$3 (+5%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $46 $46 +$0 (+0%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $36 $36 +$1 (+2%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $26 $26 −$0 (-1%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $27 $25 −$2 (-8%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 15¢ 12¢ $28 $23 −$5 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 72 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? Jun 29 $9 $0 -1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? Jun 29 $13 $0 +1%
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 29 $5 $0 +4%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 29 $59 $0 +1%
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House Jun 25 $19 −$1 -6%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Vietnam" before 2027? Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027? Jun 25 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 25 $24 +$4 +16%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 25 $33 −$6 -18%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $5 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 23 $306 +$49 +16%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $63 +$12 +18%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $13 +$1 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $250 +$22 +9%
Will Hyperliquid reach $92 in June? Jun 21 $52 −$3 -6%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 21 $77 −$1 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 21 $146 +$2 +2%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $254 +$267 +105%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $40 −$3 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 19 $20 $0 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $11 $0 -2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December? Jun 19 $14 −$1 -4%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House Jun 19 $3 $0 -12%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Jun 19 $3 $0 -14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Trump endorse any candidate for President before 2027? Jun 19 $2 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will the Republican Party hold between 215 and 219 House seats after t Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30? Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will the US strike 8 countries in 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -3%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 19 $14 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $10 $0 -4%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races? Jun 19 $3 $0 -9%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? Jun 19 $26 $0 -1%
Will the Republican Party hold below 190 House seats after the 2026 mi Jun 19 $2 $0 -12%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will there be at least 3000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026? Jun 19 $5 $0 -6%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Jun 19 $3 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $15 $0 -0%
Will Ulf Kristersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Jun 19 $8 $0 -3%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 19 $2 $0 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 19 $27 −$2 -8%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $8 $0 -2%
Will Kevin Spacey be confirmed to have visited Epstein’s island? Jun 19 $9 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $31 −$3 -9%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $9 $0 -2%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $19 $0 -2%
Gustavo Petro out as leader of Colombia by December 31? Jun 19 $9 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 1h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $165 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $46 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 20¢ $133 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $84 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $82 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $53 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $25 1h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 1h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? SELL No 87¢ $8 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 76¢ $165 2h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $10 2h
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $22 2h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $43 2h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $196 2h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $56 2h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $143 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 24¢ $89 2h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $89 2h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $28 2h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $60 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $54 2h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 2h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 76¢ $167 2h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? BUY No 88¢ $9 2h
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $2 12h
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in SELL No 34¢ $93 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $13 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,209.92 · official $3,208.86 (match) · 1547 history records