Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:28:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14bb…1eda crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 494d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%45W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 88% −$12
crypto 8% +$1
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 1% $0
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.2% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

494d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses45 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage494d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? Jun 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? May 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 05 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $140 in March? Apr 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? Dec 02 $41 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $24 $0 +2%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $25 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? Oct 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 03 $31 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? Sep 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? Sep 01 $21 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? Aug 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? Jul 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? Jun 22 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1700 in May? Jun 22 $12 $0 +0%
Will Ireland win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $6,094 −$12 -0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $1 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? May 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2400 in April? May 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2025 World Series? Apr 20 $77 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Apr 17 $35 $0 -1%
Will Mykel Williams be the first pick of the 2025 NFL Draft? Apr 15 $44 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Will AUTO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 12 $34 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 02 $5 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 02 $12 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 02 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Athletics win the 2025 World Series? Mar 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Justin Trudeau be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Mar 16 $15 $0 -0%
Will Jack Eichel win the Hart Trophy? Mar 12 $22 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $52 1h
Will Chainlink reach $16 in May? BUY No 100¢ $42 31d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $12 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $38 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Solana reach $140 in March? BUY No 100¢ $14 92d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $30 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $11 122d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $31 123d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? BUY No 100¢ $8 151d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 151d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 182d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 182d
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $28 183d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $8 211d
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 211d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 100¢ $7 241d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $18 242d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $24 243d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in September? BUY No 100¢ $12 272d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $31 274d
Will Ethereum dip to $3200 in August? BUY No 100¢ $13 302d
Will Solana dip to $140 in August? BUY No 100¢ $21 303d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $10 333d
Will XRP reach $5.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $30 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8 362d
Will Ethereum reach $3000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $12 366d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $4 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.40 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.76 · official $51.76 (match) · 121 history records