Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T04:25:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x14bb…f933 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+1%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate41%14W / 20L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 32% $0
other 25% +$1
politics 18% $0
crypto 10% $0
sports 9% $0
tech 5% +$5
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 3 +0.4% -9.1% 33% 0% -9.3%
all 34 +1.6% -8.1% 41% 6% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 6% -8.3%
10% -16.9% 3% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 3% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×7.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.91 per $1 lost it wins $8.91
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses14 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage458d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $47 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 26 $25 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 24 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 24 $18 $0 -0%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Jun 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? Jun 03 $17 $0 -1%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Jun 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? Jun 01 $16 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 01 $12 +$5 +44%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 18 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 18 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? May 16 $11 $0 -1%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres May 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Alliance for a Great Albania win the most seats in the next A May 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 10 $1 $0 +2%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? May 10 $11 $0 -0%
Will Charles Maung Bo be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will The Fantastic Four: First Steps be the top grossing movie of 2025 May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Edi Rama be the next Prime Minister of Albania after the 2025 ele May 08 $10 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? May 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? May 07 $7 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $9 $0 -1%
Will xAI have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? Apr 18 $10 $0 -3%
Will the New Democratic Party win the third most seats in the next Can Apr 17 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $14 $0 +0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 21-28? Mar 24 $2 $0 +13%
Robert Morris vs. Alabama Mar 20 $14 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 550-574 times March 14-21? Mar 19 $14 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $47 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $47 3h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $4 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $34 8h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $46 11h
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $26 22d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $51 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $51 24d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 358d
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 378d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 378d
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $18 379d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? SELL No 99¢ $18 379d
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? BUY No 98¢ $18 379d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? SELL No 95¢ $17 380d
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2025 French Open? BUY No 96¢ $17 381d
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? SELL No 96¢ $16 381d
Will Lee Jun-seok endorse Kim Moon-soo? BUY No 95¢ $16 381d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 BUY No 70¢ $12 393d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? SELL No 98¢ $12 394d
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $100-150b in federal spending in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $12 395d
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $10 397d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? SELL No 96¢ $11 397d
Will Ethereum reach $3500 in May? BUY No 96¢ $11 398d
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres SELL No 97¢ $11 398d
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres BUY No 97¢ $11 401d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $11 402d
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 98¢ $11 402d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.44 · official $3.43 (match) · 95 history records