Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:45:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
14 0x14ba…e659 sports 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 491d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist
Total PnL +$489 (+8%) realized +$824 · open −$335
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%18W / 25L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1,865now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$249
14 days+$242
30 days+$792
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$410
sports 42% +$34
world 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)+35.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +26.0% +14.0% 83% 83% +10.8%
≤30d 42 +53.7% +39.1% 43% 43% +8.4%
≤90d 43 +50.1% +35.8% 42% 42% +8.1%
all 43 +50.1% +35.8% 42% 42% +8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +35.8% 42% +8.1%
10% +22.8% 42% -2.2%
15% +11.0% 37% -11.7%
20% +0.1% 30% -20.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +50% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +62% → late +39% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$32 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.98 per $1 lost it wins $1.98
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1,865
Realized+$824
Unrealized−$335
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses18 / 25
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions6
Markets (closed)43 / 49
History coverage491d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 65¢ 48¢ $1,000 $738 −$262 (-26%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 72¢ $600 $585 −$15 (-3%)
Will France win on 2026-06-30? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $100 $81 −$19 (-19%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 20¢ $100 $64 −$36 (-36%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $203 +$142 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $202 +$72 +36%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $201 +$65 +32%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $202 +$101 +50%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 +$18 +874%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $203 +$155 +76%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $203 +$214 +105%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 +$6 +276%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 +$10 +474%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +307%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +238%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +325%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$16 +1469%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $407 −$405 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1,508 +$340 +22%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $203 +$218 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jun 04 $10 +$4 +41%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $169 +$144 +85%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 29 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 77¢ $201 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 74¢ $302 1h
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 2h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 45h
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 65¢ $1,010 45h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 45h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $202 2d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $203 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $202 4d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 59¢ $101 6d
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 8d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 8d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 8d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 8d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 9d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 9d
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 9d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 9d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 10d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 10d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 10d
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 10d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 10d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,864.99 · official $1,864.99 (match) · 81 history records