Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:20:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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14 0x14b9…f378 crypto 305 markets active 0h ago coverage 82d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 82d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$25,907 (+11%) realized +$58,775 · open −$32,868
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -69% what you keep after slip
Net edge-69%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate19%131W / 569L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$787per market
Trades / day35.8pace
Fees−$1,195est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$44,017now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 82d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% +$31,711
sports 32% −$1,269
politics 24% −$32,290
crypto 3% +$362
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-64.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 438 -90.6% -91.5% 3% 3% +8.1%
≤30d 441 -90.7% -91.6% 3% 3% -3.7%
≤90d 700 -60.2% -64.0% 19% 17% -5.2%
all 700 -60.2% -64.0% 19% 17% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -64.0% 17% -5.2%
10% ← realistic here -67.4% 15% -14.2%
15% -70.6% 12% -22.5%
20% -73.5% 9% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -60% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -20% → late -100% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$827 vs −$177 · ×4.68 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$44,017
Realized+$58,775
Unrealized−$32,868
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses131 / 569
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Est. fees paid−$1,195
Open positions15
Markets (closed)700 / 305
History coverage82d ⚠
Avg bet$787
Trades / day35.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $9,958 $9,897 −$62 (-1%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? No 28¢ 28¢ $8,617 $8,595 −$22 (-0%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $6,136 $6,033 −$102 (-2%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Over 47¢ 48¢ $4,469 $4,525 +$56 (+1%)
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Under 42¢ 40¢ $3,668 $3,537 −$131 (-4%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $26,270 $3,437 −$22,833 (-87%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $12,292 $2,834 −$9,457 (-77%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 16¢ $2,263 $2,196 −$67 (-3%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? No 18¢ 18¢ $2,177 $2,117 −$60 (-3%)
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 55¢ 58¢ $500 $532 +$32 (+6%)
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $508 $285 −$223 (-44%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 1.5 Under 35¢ 36¢ $21 $21 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 Under 10¢ 10¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+5%)
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Over 17¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Over 13¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 485 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $174 −$174 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $97 −$97 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $77 −$77 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 16 $78 −$78 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 21, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $93 −$93 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 5m
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $99 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $66 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $2 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $447 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $139 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $7 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $47 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $100 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $14 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $200 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Austria O/U 0.5 BUY Under 10¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $35 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $70 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $7 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $18 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $3 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $17 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $4 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $13 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $2 1h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $28 1h
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 17¢ $2 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44,016.99 · official $44,016.99 (match) · 3500 history records