Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14b7…82f2 sports 50 markets active 4d ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (83 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,987 (-22%) realized −$1,987 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 28L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$181per market
Trades / day82.6pace
Fees−$92est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$2,034
crypto 30% −$445
other 4% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (83 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -7.8% -16.6% 36% 27% -33.3%
≤30d 44 -7.8% -16.6% 36% 27% -33.3%
≤90d 44 -7.8% -16.6% 36% 27% -33.3%
all 44 -7.8% -16.6% 36% 27% -33.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover82.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.6% 27% -33.3%
10% ← realistic here -24.6% 18% -39.6%
15% -31.9% 16% -45.5%
20% -38.5% 9% -50.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -19% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$122 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$1,987
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$92
Open positions6
Markets (closed)44 / 50
History coverage2d
Avg bet$181
Trades / day82.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 71¢ 72¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Iraq 31¢ 30¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-5%)
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? No 80¢ 78¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-3%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Under 35¢ 34¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Under 32¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +40%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $2 +$4 +246%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 $0 -5%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 13 $3 $0 -6%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 13 $4 $0 -4%
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) Jun 13 $6 $0 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -8%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 13 $44 −$9 -20%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $12 $0 -3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $14 −$2 -12%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 −$1 -4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $28 −$2 -6%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 13 $34 −$1 -4%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 13 $47 −$3 -6%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $231 $0 +0%
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) Jun 13 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $113 −$3 -3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $66 −$18 -28%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $45 +$12 +26%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $34 −$62 -184%
Tucuman: Nicolas Kicker vs Federico Coria Jun 12 $3 −$2 -68%
Cattolica: Francesco Forti vs Andrea Guerrieri Jun 12 $2 +$1 +40%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 12 $6 $0 +5%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Thiago Cigarran Jun 12 $7 $0 +6%
Ilkley: Filippo Romano vs Jack Pinnington Jones Jun 12 $4 −$2 -50%
Valencia vs. Joventut Jun 12 $9 +$1 +11%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $55 −$82 -150%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $53 +$29 +56%
Canada leading at halftime? Jun 12 $106 +$57 +54%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $196 +$34 +17%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Málaga CF vs. UD Almería: Málaga CF O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $1,045 −$614 -59%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $3,076 −$1,387 -45%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $1,020 −$947 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $204 −$11 -5%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $513 +$41 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $515 +$59 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $409 +$79 +19%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $257 −$257 -100%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $255 +$114 +45%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $513 +$542 +106%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Canada (-1.5) SELL Canada 49¢ $3 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 16¢ $3 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 31¢ $3 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? SELL No 83¢ $4 3d
Spread: UD Almería (-1.5) SELL Málaga CF 88¢ $6 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 24¢ $7 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 36¢ $8 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Sho Shimabukuro 50¢ $11 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 93¢ $12 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 62¢ $12 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? SELL No 90¢ $19 3d
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Sho Shimabukuro SELL Ben Shelton 50¢ $24 3d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 SELL Under 79¢ $27 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 82¢ $33 3d
Spread: Germany (-2.5) SELL Germany 67¢ $44 3d
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) SELL Switzerland 33¢ $231 3d
Spread: Knicks (-16.5) SELL Spurs 92¢ $49 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 42¢ $109 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $3 3d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $53 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 71¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $1 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $2 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $4 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 25¢ $1 3d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Kaitlin Quevedo 32¢ $16 3d
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 69¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 78¢ $43 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 79¢ $2 3d
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY No 91¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.70 · official $11.70 (match) · 161 history records