trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 16¢ | 16¢ | $2 | $2 | −$0 (-0%) |
| Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 1¢ | 1¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-6%) |
| Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | 3¢ | 2¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-13%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knicks vs. Spurs | Jun 14 | $2 | −$1 | -31% |
| Sabres vs. Canadiens | Jun 14 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Jun 14 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | Jun 14 | $14 | −$3 | -20% |
| Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? | Jun 14 | $9 | +$4 | +40% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$4 | -70% |
| Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes | Jun 03 | $2 | $0 | +3% |
| Avalanche vs. Golden Knights | May 25 | $4 | $0 | +6% |
| Canadiens vs. Hurricanes | May 22 | $3 | +$4 | +133% |
| Canadiens vs. Sabres | May 19 | $4 | +$3 | +82% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | -46.8% | -51.9% | 17% | 17% | -31.1% |
| ≤30d | 10 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 50% | 30% | -10.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 50% | 30% | -10.9% |
| all | 10 | -5.7% | -14.6% | 50% | 30% | -10.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -14.6% | 30% | -10.9% |
| 10% | -22.8% | 30% | -19.4% |
| 15% | -30.3% | 30% | -27.2% |
| 20% | -37.1% | 20% | -34.3% |