Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14b5…edb0 sports 14 markets active 21h ago coverage 18d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$101 (-2%) realized −$101 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$315per market
Trades / day75.2pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days−$56
14 days−$124
30 days−$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$5
crypto 13% −$15
other 13% −$105
finance 6% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.3% -10.7% 33% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 14 -5.0% -14.1% 36% 7% -12.6%
≤90d 14 -5.0% -14.1% 36% 7% -12.6%
all 14 -5.0% -14.1% 36% 7% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover75.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 7% -12.6%
10% ← realistic here -22.3% 7% -21.0%
15% -29.8% 0% -28.6%
20% -36.7% 0% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
93.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$29 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$101
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage18d
Avg bet$315
Trades / day75.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 27 $555 −$26 -5%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Jun 25 $725 −$52 -7%
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 24 $271 +$22 +8%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $255 +$19 +8%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $485 −$97 -20%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $629 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 12 $267 −$20 -8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $579 +$22 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $280 −$25 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $12 −$3 -22%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $69 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 09 $150 −$29 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 09 $121 +$39 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 09 $10 −$2 -22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 96¢ $52 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 96¢ $31 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun SELL Connecticut Sun 96¢ $66 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 95¢ $5 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 90¢ $5 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 86¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 89¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 85¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 84¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 85¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 81¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 80¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 80¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 80¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 77¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 80¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 76¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 74¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 73¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 39¢ $2 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 39¢ $2 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 37¢ $2 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 37¢ $2 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 36¢ $2 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 65¢ $3 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 65¢ $3 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 67¢ $3 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 67¢ $3 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 77¢ $4 21h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 76¢ $4 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1420 history records