Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T03:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14b0…7691
weather · 415 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$26 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$141
Realized−$26
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses353 / 56
Open positions6
Markets (closed)409 / 415
History coverage159d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 6 History 409 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$15
14 days+$20
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? No 99¢ 100¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? No 99¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? No 97¢ 88¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-9%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 14? No 99¢ 99¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 19? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 23°C on April 29? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on March 19? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
T20 World Cup: Namibia vs Pakistan (Game 1) Namibia 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on March 20? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 22? Yes 48¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Up 49¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C on March 22? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C or higher on April 3? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on April 1? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 11? No 99¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 24°C on March 29? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on March 20? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 11? Jun 12 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? Jun 12 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 10? Jun 11 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? Jun 10 $28 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 9? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? Jun 10 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 8 Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 8? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 8? Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? Jun 09 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 7? Jun 08 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 7? Jun 08 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 08 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? Jun 07 $28 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on June 6? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on June 6? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? Jun 07 $9 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 6? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 6? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 6? Jun 07 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 5? Jun 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 5? Jun 06 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C or below on June 4? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 39°C on June 4? Jun 04 $28 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C or higher on June Jun 04 $27 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 2? Jun 03 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $27 +$2 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C or higher on June Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 1? Jun 02 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C or higher on May 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on May 31? Jun 01 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 31? May 31 $30 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 30? May 31 $27 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 30°C on May 31? May 31 $29 −$1 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 93% −$1
other 4% −$22
crypto 3% −$2
sports 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $18 33m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 15°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $25 42m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $25 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $25 18h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $25 25h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $25 26h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 27°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $25 29h
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $28 37h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $25 41h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on Ju BUY No 98¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $25 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 11? BUY No 96¢ $28 3d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $15 4d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on June 10? BUY No 91¢ $28 4d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $29 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C or below on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 8? BUY No 99¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 8? BUY No 96¢ $28 5d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? SELL No 100¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 9°C or below on June 8 BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 99¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 18°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C or below on June 7? BUY No 99¢ $9 6d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 96¢ $28 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $28 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 95 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 0% -8.6%
≤90d 333 -2.7% -12.0% 90% 2% -9.4%
all 409 -3.0% -12.3% 86% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.3% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.7% 1% -18.3%
15% -28.3% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.3% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.31 · official $141.32 (match) · 1005 history records