Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:55:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14af…887e weather 1456 markets active 4h ago coverage 77d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 77d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$423 (-6%) realized −$415 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate66%912W / 460L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day30.0pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$222now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$194
14 days−$94
30 days−$100
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 51% −$146
sports 25% −$30
crypto 11% −$21
other 9% −$2
world 3% −$53
politics 1% −$22
culture 0% −$3
finance 0% +$5
tech 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -34.6% -40.8% 39% 33% -41.4%
≤30d 430 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 44% -13.8%
≤90d 1372 -8.3% -17.0% 66% 39% -12.9%
all 1372 -8.3% -17.0% 66% 39% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.0% 39% -12.9%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 20% -21.3%
15% -32.2% 12% -28.9%
20% -38.8% 8% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
39% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$222
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses912 / 460
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions92
Markets (closed)1372 / 1456
History coverage77d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day30.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 92 History 1372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 70¢ 55¢ $14 $11 −$3 (-23%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $5 $7 +$3 (+56%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+30%)
Will Elena Rybakina be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-12%)
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 National League MVP Award? Yes 69¢ 84¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? Yes 24¢ 100¢ $1 $5 +$4 (+316%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+51%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 100¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 30¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+61%)
Will Norway win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-48%)
Will Czechia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+22%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Pedri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? No 89¢ 81¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+95%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 76¢ 79¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 78¢ 76¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 75¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $7 $4 −$3 (-49%)
Puffpaw FDV above $200M one day after launch? No 75¢ 74¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 237 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 12°C or below on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Harry Kane be the 2025/2026 top UCL goal scorer? Jun 18 $1 $0 -18%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C or higher on May 15? Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Will Manchester United finish in 2nd place in the 2025-26 English Prem Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +12%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +40%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? Jun 17 $2 +$3 +121%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? Jun 17 $6 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$3 +67%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $4 +$1 +16%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on June 16? Jun 16 $13 −$5 -35%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $3 +$2 +83%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$1 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$3 -33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +474%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $9 −$3 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +81%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 29°C on May 20? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C or higher on April 29? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Elena Rybakina win the 2026 Women’s French Open? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on June 1? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 14? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on May 8? Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Jiujiang: Fajing Sun vs Tristan Schoolkate Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Bosnia and Herzegovina 64¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 19? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on June 19? BUY No 89¢ $4 5h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 49¢ $3 6h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on June 19? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $4 6h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 31°C on June 19? BUY No 88¢ $4 6h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 29¢ $3 7h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 18? BUY No 89¢ $4 14h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 18? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 28°C on June 18? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 14h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 19? BUY No 61¢ $3 15h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 29°C on June 18? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 29h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 26°C on June 18? BUY No 81¢ $4 29h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 82¢ $4 38h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 17? BUY No 73¢ $1 38h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 71¢ $4 39h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $4 39h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, BUY Ion Cutelaba 27¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 17? BUY Yes 44¢ $2 42h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 42h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on June 18? BUY No 83¢ $4 43h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 60¢ $4 2d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $5 2d
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 17? BUY Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 17? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on June 17? BUY No 88¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 86¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 16? SELL No 5¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $221.95 · official $221.95 (match) · 3500 history records