Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:29:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
14 0x14af…02f2 world 76 markets active 2h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$80 (+6%) realized +$137 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%23W / 46L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$77
7 days+$110
14 days+$110
30 days+$105
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$46
other 31% −$142
sports 20% +$233
crypto 10% +$32
economics 2% $0
politics 1% +$4
tech 1% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-27.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -26.6% -33.6% 29% 29% +14.4%
≤30d 18 -30.6% -37.2% 28% 28% +13.0%
≤90d 34 -20.0% -27.6% 32% 32% -1.7%
all 69 -19.5% -27.2% 33% 29% +0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.2% 29% +0.8%
10% -34.1% 28% -8.8%
15% -40.5% 28% -17.6%
20% -46.3% 22% -25.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$11 · ×2.49 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$137
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses23 / 46
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)69 / 76
History coverage154d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $50 $25 −$25 (-50%)
Human moon landing in 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $20 $9 −$11 (-54%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-23%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Yes 27¢ 14¢ $15 $7 −$7 (-50%)
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Yes 23¢ 10¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 34¢ 12¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $90 +$90 +100%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $79 +$37 +47%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 +$17 +323%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $31 +$39 +128%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $66 +$61 +92%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 15 $20 −$9 -45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 12 $10 +$6 +61%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? May 12 $10 +$7 +72%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 10 $10 +$4 +42%
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? May 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO? May 10 $5 +$12 +238%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $10 +$42 +414%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? May 01 $28 −$28 -100%
50m views on a MrBeast video in the first day by April 30? May 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $5 +$2 +45%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in March? Mar 17 $15 +$11 +75%
Will Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Eje'i be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Hassan Khomeini be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Reza Pahlavi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Ali Larijani be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 9, 2026? Mar 09 $20 +$56 +279%
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31? Mar 08 $10 $0 +5%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 08 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Charles Oliveira win by KO or TKO? Mar 08 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on March 4, 2026? Mar 04 $30 +$2 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 24 to March 3, 2026? Mar 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Mar 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in February? Mar 01 $15 −$15 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 01 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026? Mar 01 $25 +$46 +186%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 13h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 13h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $90 15h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 15h
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $79 2d
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 9¢ $11 2d
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 2d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 51¢ $66 3d
O/U 2.5 Rounds BUY Over 43¢ $31 3d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 38d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 38d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $14 38d
Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 39d
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) BUY Jeremy Stephens 23¢ $5 39d
Will Joshua Van win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 39d
Will Sean Strickland win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 39d
Will Khamzat Chimaev win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 39d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Sean Strickland 19¢ $10 39d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 41d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 44d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.53 · official $107.53 (match) · 195 history records