Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:21:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ad…69f5 weather 119 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$825 (-12%) realized −$825 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate5%6W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day7.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$176
14 days−$196
30 days−$642
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 39% −$501
other 33% −$85
finance 25% −$300
sports 3% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 49 -9.4% -18.1% 2% 0% -21.5%
≤30d 105 -8.3% -17.0% 2% 1% -24.9%
≤90d 119 -8.6% -17.3% 5% 1% -21.9%
all 119 -8.6% -17.3% 5% 1% -21.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 1% -21.9%
10% -25.2% 1% -29.4%
15% -32.5% 1% -36.2%
20% -39.1% 1% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$9 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$825
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses6 / 113
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)119 / 119
History coverage53d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day7.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 119 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30? Jun 29 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? Jun 29 $38 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? Jun 29 $33 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? Jun 25 $17 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? Jun 25 $11 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? Jun 25 $79 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? Jun 25 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? Jun 25 $26 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? Jun 25 $60 −$6 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 14°C on June 26? Jun 25 $3 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 26? Jun 25 $66 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 25? Jun 25 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 26? Jun 25 $0 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 25? Jun 24 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on June 26? Jun 24 $4 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 25? Jun 24 $37 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on Ju Jun 24 $60 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 25? Jun 24 $8 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 27°C on June 25? Jun 24 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 21°C on June 23? Jun 24 $33 −$33 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 25? Jun 24 $53 −$2 -4%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 24? Jun 24 $63 −$26 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 21°C on June 24? Jun 24 $45 −$27 -61%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 25? Jun 24 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 30°C on June 25? Jun 23 $4 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on June 24? Jun 23 $49 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? Jun 23 $100 −$20 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 25? Jun 23 $30 −$2 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 24? Jun 23 $13 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $43 −$5 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 23 $40 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 25°C or below on June 23? Jun 23 $6 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 24? Jun 22 $3 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? Jun 22 $34 −$2 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 22 $10 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 26°C on June 23? Jun 22 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C or higher on June 24? Jun 22 $2 $0 -7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 24? Jun 22 $53 −$12 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? Jun 22 $3 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 22 $61 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 37°C on June 24? Jun 22 $100 −$6 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 12°C on June 23? Jun 22 $11 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on June 24? Jun 22 $13 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? Jun 22 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 24? Jun 22 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30? SELL Yes 37¢ $11 26m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $11 26m
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL No 39¢ $34 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? BUY No 40¢ $36 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 54¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 55¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? SELL Yes 58¢ $29 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? SELL No 41¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 29? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C or below on June 29? BUY No 42¢ $2 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 26? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 65¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? SELL No 65¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $13 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 27? BUY No 66¢ $3 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? SELL Yes 41¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 27? BUY Yes 41¢ $11 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? SELL Yes 32¢ $74 3d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 13°C on June 25? BUY Yes 33¢ $79 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? SELL Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on June 26? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 59¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 67¢ $0 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? SELL No 67¢ $25 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 26? BUY No 68¢ $26 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? SELL No 54¢ $55 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 35°C on June 26? BUY No 58¢ $60 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 466 history records