Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:44:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14ac…dd9f sports 305 markets active 2h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$6,886 (-11%) realized −$6,136 · open −$750
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%110W / 194L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$111est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$475
30 days−$1,088
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$7,924
other 6% +$441
tech 0% −$271
crypto 0% −$137
politics 0% +$163
world 0% −$201
culture 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 4 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 53 -65.9% -69.1% 15% 15% -71.5%
all 304 -11.4% -19.8% 36% 36% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 36% -20.3%
10% -27.5% 34% -27.9%
15% -34.5% 33% -34.9%
20% -40.9% 31% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$270 vs −$191 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$6,136
Unrealized−$750
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses110 / 194
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$111
Open positions1
Markets (closed)304 / 305
History coverage251d
Avg bet$205
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Yakult Brothers 15¢ 0¢ $752 $2 −$750 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $486 −$475 -98%
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray May 21 $179 −$174 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall May 21 $66 −$65 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs May 19 $383 −$373 -98%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Sweden vs Slovenia May 19 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 18 $49 +$67 +136%
Chicago Sky vs. Phoenix Mercury May 16 $99 −$97 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $773 −$759 -98%
LoL: GTZ Esports vs Francesinhas (BO1) - LPLOL Regular Season May 15 $308 −$300 -98%
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Tallon Griekspoor May 15 $732 +$350 +48%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Houston Astros May 06 $343 −$337 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Matteo Arnaldi vs Jaume Munar May 06 $195 +$148 +76%
Jiujiang: Mei Yamaguchi vs Hayu Kinoshita May 06 $195 −$191 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Nongshim Esports Academy (BO3) - LCK Challenge May 05 $487 −$480 -98%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Apr 24 $96 −$94 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 24 $97 −$95 -98%
Stars vs. Wild Apr 23 $197 −$194 -99%
LoL: Cloud9 vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup North America Qua Apr 22 $98 −$95 -98%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Vitality.Bee (BO1) - LFL Regular Season Apr 22 $98 −$96 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Team WE (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 22 $98 −$95 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 22 $98 −$95 -97%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Ch Apr 06 $98 −$96 -98%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs Gen.G Global Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers L Apr 06 $87 −$86 -98%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs VP.Prodigy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Gro Mar 30 $73 −$73 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs DN SOOPers Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chal Mar 30 $98 −$97 -99%
Credit One Charleston Open, Qualification: Polina Kudermetova vs Eva V Mar 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Grand Prix Hassan II, Qualification: Ilya Ivashka vs Nicolai Budkov Kj Mar 29 $68 −$68 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Israel Adesanya vs. Joe Pyfer (Middleweight, Main Car Mar 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Michael Chiesa win by KO or TKO? Mar 29 $42 −$42 -100%
Jets vs. Avalanche Mar 29 $98 +$44 +45%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 28 $292 −$291 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $300 −$300 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Fnatic (BO3) - LEC Group Stage Mar 28 $123 −$123 -100%
LoL: LNG Esports vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Mar 28 $93 +$329 +354%
LoL: Oh My God vs Ultra Prime (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifie Mar 28 $98 −$5 -5%
Yokkaichi: Yasutaka Uchiyama vs Hayato Matsuoka Mar 28 $97 −$97 -100%
Nets vs. Lakers Mar 28 $53 −$53 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sakura Esports vs Reign Above (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 23 $145 −$145 -100%
Washington Huskies vs. TCU Horned Frogs (W) Mar 23 $95 −$95 -100%
Kings vs. Utah Mar 23 $230 −$230 -100%
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tide Mar 23 $195 +$36 +18%
Louisville Cardinals vs. Michigan State Spartans Mar 21 $200 −$199 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Mason Jones vs. Axel Sola (Lightweight, Prelims) Mar 21 $143 −$143 -100%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Michigan Wolverines Mar 21 $457 +$35 +8%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Playoffs Mar 21 $90 −$90 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Mar 21 $35 −$35 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs G2 Esports - Game 3 Winner Mar 21 $200 −$100 -50%
Dota 2: LiXO eSports vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group A Mar 21 $72 −$72 -100%
Valorant: Riddle vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1 Mar 21 $82 +$144 +175%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs GLYPH (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Mar 21 $163 −$163 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 18¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 18¢ $9 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 20¢ $26 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 18¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 19¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 19¢ $31 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 19¢ $20 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 12¢ $18 1h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 8¢ $103 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 11¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 14¢ $71 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 14¢ $57 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 17¢ $135 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $6 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $67 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $0 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 22¢ $67 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $1 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $66 2h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Yakult Brothers (BO3) - The International C BUY Yakult Brothers 21¢ $51 2h
Will Vissel Kōbe win on 2026-06-06? BUY Yes 24¢ $486 12d
Bengaluru 3: Sasikumar Mukund vs Alastair Gray BUY Sasikumar Mukund 15¢ $179 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 21¢ $26 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 26¢ $3 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 26¢ $4 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 29¢ $10 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 29¢ $7 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 27¢ $5 28d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - LCK Chall BUY Kiwoom DRX Challengers 29¢ $12 28d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - DreamLeague Playoffs BUY Tundra Esports 13¢ $383 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.44 · official $2.44 (match) · 605 history records