Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:01:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x14ab…bc9f
other · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$2 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses3 / 5
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage3d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%
Chart Positions 2 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Yes 28¢ 30¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 58¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 −$1 -12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $70 +$1 +2%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$8 +157%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 94% +$5
sports 6% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 28¢ $1 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 93¢ $60 11h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 12h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 14h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 14h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 14h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 14h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 98¢ $70 38h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 39h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 39h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 84¢ $6 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-37.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 12% -8.4%
≤30d 8 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 12% -8.4%
≤90d 8 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 12% -8.4%
all 8 -30.8% -37.4% 38% 12% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -37.4% 12% -8.4%
10% -43.4% 12% -17.2%
15% -48.8% 12% -25.2%
20% -53.9% 12% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.02 · official $3.02 (match) · 17 history records