Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:05:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

14 0x14aa…fa9b other 25 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d

TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$66 (+0%) realized +$66 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip

Net edge-19%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate92%22W / 2L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$810per market

Trades / day4.2pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit28%portable

Net worth$1,180now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$100

7 days+$71

14 days+$71

30 days+$71

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-12.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	-3.2%	-12.4%	92%	0%	-9.2%
≤30d	24	-3.2%	-12.4%	92%	0%	-9.2%
≤90d	24	-3.2%	-12.4%	92%	0%	-9.2%
all	24	-3.2%	-12.4%	92%	0%	-9.2%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-12.4%	0%	-9.2%
10%	-20.8%	0%	-17.9%
15%	-28.4%	0%	-25.8%
20%	-35.5%	0%	-33.1%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,100) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -7% → late +1% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$9 vs −$61 · ×0.14 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.58 per $1 lost it wins $1.58

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage

Net worth$1,180

Realized+$66

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)92%

Wins / losses22 / 2

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)24 / 25

History coverage10d

Avg bet$810

Trades / day4.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit28%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 24 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco?	No	100¢	100¢	$1,180	$1,180	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia?	Jun 19	$1,170	+$7	+1%
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia?	Jun 19	$1,170	+$4	+0%
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	Jun 19	$1,141	+$27	+2%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar?	Jun 19	$1,130	+$9	+1%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	Jun 18	$1,120	+$9	+1%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa?	Jun 18	$1,060	+$9	+1%
Exact Score: Olympic Dcheira 3 - 0 AS FAR?	Jun 18	$50	+$1	+1%
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa?	Jun 18	$1,060	+$7	+1%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia?	Jun 18	$1,100	+$11	+1%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama?	Jun 18	$1,085	+$16	+2%
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia?	Jun 17	$1,076	+$8	+1%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo?	Jun 17	$1,074	+$2	+0%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan?	Jun 17	$1,051	+$21	+2%
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway?	Jun 17	$1,050	+$3	+0%
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal?	Jun 16	$1,037	+$13	+1%
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 0 - 2 Ceará SC?	Jun 16	$1,001	+$30	+3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5	Jun 15	$998	+$9	+1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 15	$1,001	−$2	-0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5	Jun 15	$119	−$119	-100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 6.5	Jun 15	$118	+$1	+0%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 7.5	Jun 14	$118	$0	+0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 0.5	Jun 14	$117	+$1	+1%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$114	+$3	+3%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 7.5	Jun 13	$113	+$1	+1%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Scotland 3 - 0 Morocco?	BUY No	100¢	$1,180	9m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia?	SELL No	100¢	$1,178	11m
Exact Score: United States 2 - 3 Australia?	BUY No	99¢	$1,170	1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia?	SELL No	100¢	$1,175	1h
Exact Score: United States 0 - 3 Australia?	BUY No	99¢	$1,170	14h
Exact Score: Mexico 0 - 2 Korea Republic?	BUY No	98¢	$1,141	19h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 3 Qatar?	BUY No	99¢	$1,130	24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	SELL No	100¢	$1,129	24h
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 3 Bosnia-Herzegovina?	BUY No	99¢	$1,120	26h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa?	SELL No	100¢	$1,069	26h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 3 South Africa?	BUY No	99¢	$1,060	28h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa?	SELL No	100¢	$1,067	28h
Exact Score: Czechia 0 - 3 South Africa?	BUY No	99¢	$1,060	33h
Exact Score: Olympic Dcheira 3 - 0 AS FAR?	BUY No	99¢	$50	33h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 3 - 3 Colombia?	BUY No	99¢	$1,100	43h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama?	SELL No	100¢	$1,100	43h
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 3 Panama?	BUY No	98¢	$1,085	2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia?	SELL No	100¢	$1,085	2d
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Croatia?	BUY No	99¢	$1,076	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo?	SELL No	100¢	$316	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo?	SELL No	100¢	$760	2d
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 3 DR Congo?	BUY No	100¢	$1,074	2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan?	SELL No	100¢	$1,071	2d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 2 Jordan?	BUY No	98¢	$1,051	2d
Exact Score: Iraq 3 - 1 Norway?	BUY No	100¢	$1,050	2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal?	SELL No	100¢	$1,051	2d
Exact Score: France 2 - 3 Senegal?	BUY No	99¢	$1,037	3d
Exact Score: Criciúma EC 0 - 2 Ceará SC?	BUY No	97¢	$1,001	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5	SELL Under	100¢	$1,007	3d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 6.5	BUY Under	99¢	$998	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,180.00 · official $1,179.41 (match) · 55 history records