Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:54:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a9…cbf6 world 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%25W / 62L
Drawdown61%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$3
14 days−$0
30 days+$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$12
politics 21% −$1
sports 14% −$3
other 13% $0
economics 2% +$5
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% −$1
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 26 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 0% -9.2%
≤90d 38 -0.7% -10.2% 32% 0% -9.2%
all 87 -0.4% -9.9% 29% 2% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 2% -9.3%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.89 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.69 per $1 lost it wins $1.69
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses25 / 62
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage315d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown61%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 95¢ 95¢ $105 $105 +$0 (+0%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 95¢ 97¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Yes 31¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 15 $34 −$4 -11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $125 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $109 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $380 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $96 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $159 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 -4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $97 +$2 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $55 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $95 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $7 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $265 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 03 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 02 $26 +$2 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 26 $249 +$13 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $8 −$1 -12%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $55 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $23 +$2 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $41 −$5 -12%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 18 $11 −$1 -9%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 18 $87 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 16 $9 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $3 $0 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $4 $0 +4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 -4%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 14 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $595 −$4 -1%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $59 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $541 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $70 +$5 +8%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $24 +$1 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $167 $0 +0%
Will Curtis Sliwa win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 27 $1 $0 -31%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 15 $3 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 15 $9 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 15 $43 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 15 $6 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 15 $41 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kupiansk by August 31? Aug 15 $4 $0 +2%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 14 $41 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $105 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $27 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 8¢ $3 6h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $34 8h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 14¢ $6 14h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 14¢ $6 18h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 16¢ $4 37h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 17¢ $4 41h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 43h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 85¢ $109 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 85¢ $109 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $64 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $20 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $61 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $39 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $7 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $54 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $91 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $8 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $18 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $1 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $54 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 39¢ $23 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 39¢ $96 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $26 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $48 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 67¢ $74 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.53 · official $104.94 (match) · 329 history records