Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a5…2c8b sports 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate17%5W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% $0
other 20% −$3
politics 15% −$1
culture 10% −$2
economics 4% $0
weather 1% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 +0.8% -8.8% 67% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 6 -12.2% -20.6% 50% 0% -11.4%
all 30 -16.9% -24.8% 17% 3% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 3% -10.2%
10% -32.0% 3% -18.8%
15% -38.6% 3% -26.6%
20% -44.6% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses5 / 25
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage224d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? May 20 $4 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17? May 20 $6 $0 +1%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $22 $0 +0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 03 $1 $0 -33%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $3 −$1 -43%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? Mar 02 $37 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 21 $1 −$1 -67%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 11 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 31 $1 −$1 -50%
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hung Jan 09 $85 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 30 $65 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 20 $3 $0 -14%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Dec 10 $1 −$1 -46%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 27 $92 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Capitals win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 26 $106 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Nov 24 $1 $0 -22%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by June 30? Nov 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bodo Glimt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $40 $0 -0%
Will Leeds win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 19 $1 $0 -33%
Will Joel Embiid win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Nov 17 $69 $0 -0%
Memphis vs. East Carolina Nov 17 $7 +$5 +75%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Gold close at $2,800-2,900 at the end of 2025? Nov 12 $1 $0 -33%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 10 $1 $0 -38%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 09 $54 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Nov 07 $91 $0 -0%
Will Colin Farrell win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Nov 05 $100 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $34 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $4 31d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on May 17? BUY No 99¢ $6 31d
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $34 60d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $22 65d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $22 72d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 74d
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 82d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 85d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 94d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 96d
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 104d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? SELL No 100¢ $37 106d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair? BUY No 100¢ $37 113d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 116d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 122d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 126d
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 134d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 136d
Will Espanyol win the 2025–26 La Liga? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 142d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 147d
Will Cooper Flagg win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 155d
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hung SELL No 100¢ $85 158d
Will the Democratic Coalition (DK) win the most seats in the next Hung BUY No 100¢ $85 166d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $65 168d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $65 176d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 178d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 186d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 1¢ $1 189d
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 1¢ $0 189d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records