Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:39:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x14a3…c186 other 95 markets active 19h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$666 (+9%) realized +$781 · open −$115
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%38W / 50L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit37%portable
Net worth$2,688now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$20
14 days+$27
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$397
world 21% +$218
tech 19% −$24
sports 8% +$41
politics 2% +$23
crypto 0% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-6.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +36.7% +23.6% 26% 22% +6.2%
≤30d 75 +1.1% -8.5% 33% 27% -6.6%
≤90d 88 +3.4% -6.5% 43% 30% +5.3%
all 88 +3.4% -6.5% 43% 30% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.5% 30% +5.3%
10% -15.4% 22% -4.7%
15% -23.6% 15% -13.9%
20% -31.1% 9% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$2 · ×10.98 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.34 per $1 lost it wins $8.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$2,688
Realized+$781
Unrealized−$115
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses38 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions7
Markets (closed)88 / 95
History coverage86d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit37%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 88 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No 91¢ 90¢ $600 $590 −$10 (-2%)
Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on June 30? Anthropic 89¢ 96¢ $500 $537 +$37 (+7%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $500 $508 +$8 (+2%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31? No 91¢ 88¢ $400 $389 −$11 (-3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31? No 93¢ 89¢ $400 $383 −$17 (-4%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 69¢ 48¢ $400 $275 −$125 (-31%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 41¢ 80¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $7 +$3 +34%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -10%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -15%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $9 $0 -2%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $4 +$6 +165%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -16%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 $0 -13%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $2 +$8 +443%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $9 $0 -2%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$19 +1290%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $16 +$5 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $16 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $9 +$3 +38%
Will Karen Bass & Nithya Raman advance to the second round of the 2026 Jun 09 $16 +$2 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $2 +$1 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 08 $8 +$5 +60%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $16 −$1 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -17%
Will Bahrain vs. Syria end in a draw? Jun 08 $10 $0 +3%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $49 +$15 +31%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $7 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $6 −$1 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 05 $7 −$2 -35%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 05 $4 −$2 -51%
Will Spain vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 04 $1 +$4 +330%
Will Sweden vs. Greece end in a draw? Jun 04 $4 +$6 +140%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Trump speak to Keir Starmer in May? Jun 04 $5 +$1 +22%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $10 +$5 +51%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 18h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 74¢ $7 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 18h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 41¢ $2 32h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 38h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 2d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 92¢ $9 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 93¢ $9 2d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 43¢ $4 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $1 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 78¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 79¢ $8 3d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,687.90 · official $2,686.97 (match) · 223 history records