Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:53:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a3…076e crypto 91 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (98 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$51 (+3%) realized +$67 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate36%24W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day97.7pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$249
sports 5% +$110
other 4% +$1
finance 1% −$2
world 0% $0
tech 0% −$3
weather 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (98 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +11.0% +0.5% 36% 25% -17.7%
≤30d 67 +11.0% +0.5% 36% 25% -17.7%
≤90d 67 +11.0% +0.5% 36% 25% -17.7%
all 67 +11.0% +0.5% 36% 25% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover97.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.5% 25% -17.7%
10% ← realistic here -9.2% 22% -25.5%
15% -17.9% 16% -32.7%
20% -26.0% 10% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +64% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$67
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses24 / 43
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions16
Markets (closed)67 / 91
History coverage2d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day97.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 67 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 25¢ 11¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-56%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Yes 70¢ 45¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-36%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.5T by June 30? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Gold (GC) settle at <$3,800 in June? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-54%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-40%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of June? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 23¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 25 $104 −$39 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $77 −$18 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 25 $128 −$25 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 25 $154 +$68 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$9 +172%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $10 +$19 +189%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $22 +$23 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 25 $26 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$8 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $34 −$8 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$5 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 25 $37 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $79 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 25 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $88 +$20 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $78 −$57 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$31 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $51 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$8 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$23 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$5 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$5 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $39 +$19 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $38 +$11 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$5 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$15 -49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -99%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AN Jun 25 $5 +$72 +1396%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Brazil? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 24 $19 −$4 -21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 88¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 67¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 28¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $119 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 34¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $26 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.45 · official $65.76 · 251 history records