Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:58:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a1…02c3 crypto 43 markets active 2d ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$14 (-10%) realized −$7 · open −$7
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 54% $0
other 14% −$3
politics 14% −$12
world 7% −$1
tech 5% −$2
sports 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-35.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -14.7% -22.8% 32% 21% -18.1%
≤30d 42 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 29% -17.9%
≤90d 42 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 29% -17.9%
all 42 -28.2% -35.0% 36% 29% -17.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.0% 29% -17.9%
10% -41.2% 24% -25.7%
15% -46.9% 21% -32.9%
20% -52.1% 12% -39.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage8d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 32¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $5 $0 -5%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 -17%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -50%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? Jun 13 $5 $0 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -33%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 −$1 -48%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $5 $0 +4%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 07 $6 +$3 +49%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 06 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$5 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 06 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 06 $6 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 06 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 06 $1 −$1 -94%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by June 30? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -95%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 05 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 05 $10 +$5 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 47h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 47h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 47h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 47h
Trump out as President before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 47h
Will Trump say "Nuke" this week? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 47h
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 23¢ $1 47h
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $5 47h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 54¢ $3 2d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 43¢ $1 3d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 53¢ $1 4d
LoL: LOS vs paiN Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATA BUY paiN Gaming 12¢ $1 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 40¢ $1 4d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 32¢ $1 4d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 55¢ $1 4d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 71¢ $2 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 5d
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? BUY No $1 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $5 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $5 6d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY Yes 22¢ $2 6d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET SELL Up 36¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 7d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? BUY No 11¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $0.26 (match) · 113 history records