Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T19:02:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a1…30d7 other 166 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-0%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%18W / 147L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$134per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$20
14 days−$24
30 days−$45
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$34
other 23% −$22
sports 17% −$11
crypto 8% −$2
finance 5% −$7
world 4% −$7
culture 4% −$2
economics 3% −$3
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 71 -0.6% -10.1% 8% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 153 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 165 -0.6% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses18 / 147
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)165 / 166
History coverage102d
Avg bet$134
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 19 $61 $0 -1%
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 19 $106 −$1 -1%
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 19 $6 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $167 −$1 -1%
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $125 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $278 −$1 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $328 −$2 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 16 $205 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $193 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $72 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $64 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $316 −$3 -1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $408 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $47,500 in June? Jun 15 $67 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $64 $0 -0%
Will Norway reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $70 −$1 -1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $558 −$2 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $124 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $208 −$3 -1%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $195 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 12 $48 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $165 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 11 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 11 $49 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $164 $0 -0%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $39 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $63 −$1 -2%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $97 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $111 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 07 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 06 $5 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $58 −$1 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $68 +$1 +1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 04 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $109 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 03 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 03 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $187 −$1 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 02 $63 $0 -0%
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $119 −$1 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $682 −$3 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $49 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $50 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $6 55m
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 98¢ $60 1h
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 98¢ $61 5h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $70 6h
Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $72 13h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $6 13h
Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $6 21h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $70 22h
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $70 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 37h
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $19 37h
Will DR Congo reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $20 44h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 95¢ $61 45h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $61 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $65 2d
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $65 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $61 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $74 2d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $75 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $26 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $26 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $63 3d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $73 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $72 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 96¢ $63 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $15 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $49 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.80 · official $5.80 (match) · 714 history records