Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T18:48:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a0…ed3c crypto 1051 markets active 1h ago coverage 59d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$112 (+1%) realized +$112 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate72%757W / 294L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day28.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days−$2
14 days+$4
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% −$91
sports 9% +$118
other 1% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 85 -0.7% -10.1% 87% 35% -9.7%
≤30d 664 +0.8% -8.8% 79% 34% -9.7%
≤90d 1051 -2.5% -11.8% 72% 33% -9.2%
all 1051 -2.5% -11.8% 72% 33% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.8% 33% -9.2%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 17% -17.9%
15% -28.0% 9% -25.8%
20% -35.0% 5% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$4 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$112
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses757 / 294
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1051 / 1051
History coverage59d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day28.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1051 Trades
no open positions (84 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $8 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $14 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 15 $12 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 14 $8 +$5 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$4 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $12 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 12 $14 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 12 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 12 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $12 −$12 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $14 +$4 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 11 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 11 $13 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 11 $17 +$1 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $12 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $0 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $13 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $12 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $7 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $15 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $7 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $12 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $13 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $7 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $13 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $14 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2486 history records