Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:36:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x14a0…22bb sports 430 markets active 0h ago coverage 26d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 26d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (122 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$19,011 (+7%) realized +$19,203 · open −$192
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate36%249W / 435L
Whale WR46%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$614per market
Trades / day122.4pace
Fees−$3,811est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,394now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 26d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% +$189
other 1% −$261
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (122 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-34.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 378 -50.7% -55.4% 19% 12% -39.2%
≤30d 684 -27.4% -34.3% 36% 24% -23.3%
≤90d 684 -27.4% -34.3% 36% 24% -23.3%
all 684 -27.4% -34.3% 36% 24% -23.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover122.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.3% 24% -23.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.6% 15% -30.6%
15% -46.3% 8% -37.3%
20% -51.6% 4% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 46% (≥$609) neutral
Persistence
early +2% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$84 vs −$170 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

26d coverage
Net worth$1,394
Realized+$19,203
Unrealized−$192
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses249 / 435
Whale WR (big bets)46%
Est. fees paid−$3,811
Open positions6
Markets (closed)684 / 430
History coverage26d ⚠
Avg bet$614
Trades / day122.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 684 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Spirit 75¢ 74¢ $600 $588 −$12 (-2%)
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? Yes 46¢ 28¢ $518 $315 −$203 (-39%)
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner KOLESIE 91¢ 100¢ $206 $227 +$20 (+10%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Season BESTIA 70¢ 68¢ $195 $192 −$3 (-2%)
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BESTIA 71¢ 78¢ $62 $68 +$6 (+10%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 279 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $528 −$528 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Legacy (BO5) Jun 17 $2 −$13 -630%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Jun 17 $749 −$749 -100%
BLAST Bounty: Liquid vs. FURIA Jun 17 $130 −$130 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs Legacy (BO3) Jun 17 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Javokhir Sindarov end in a draw? Jun 17 $189 −$189 -100%
BLAST Open: Spirit vs. G2 Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
BLAST Bounty: MOUZ vs. Spirit Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
BLAST Open: MOUZ vs. Imperial Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $58 −$58 -100%
League of Legends: Invictus Gaming vs. Top Esports Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Jun 17 $138 −$616 -447%
Will Spain win the UEFA Women's Euro? Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DRX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stage Jun 17 $245 −$397 -162%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs fnatic (BO3) Jun 17 $61 −$61 -100%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Los Heretics - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $42 −$42 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $126 −$126 -100%
League of Legends: Hanwha Life Esports vs. KT Rolster Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $334 −$361 -108%
Will Keir Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questi Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Valorant: NRG vs Paper Rex - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $329 −$329 -100%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Valorant: Polar Squad Esports GC vs Olimpo Gold (BO3) - VCT Game Chang Jun 17 $59 −$59 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs ENCE (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1: Closed Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Passion UA (BO3) Jun 17 $59 −$140 -239%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Beşiktaş Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Jun 17 $12 −$24 -201%
League of Legends: Bilibili Gaming vs. G2 Jun 17 $73 −$73 -100%
IEM Cologne: The MongolZ vs. Natus Vincere Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
IEM Cologne: Astralis vs. FURIA Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Astralis win the FISSURE Playground 1 Tournament? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
League of Legends: BNK FEARX vs. OKSavingsBank BRION Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
BLAST Bounty: G2 vs. Spirit Jun 17 $65 −$76 -118%
Will anyone say "Advertisement" during the Q2 2025 Netflix earnings ca Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Shifters vs GIANTX (BO1) Jun 17 $0 +$16 +14923%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs 3DMAX (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 2 Jun 17 $405 −$703 -174%
League of Legends: BDS vs. Team Heretics Jun 17 $58 −$69 -118%
Will Norway vs. Estonia end in a draw? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffs Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $425 −$425 -100%
Ethereum above $3,000 on July 18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
IEM Cologne: Aurora vs. Spirit Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs paiN (BO3) Jun 17 $2 −$29 -1152%
Will Trump say "Tariff" 5+ times during Philippines President events o Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B Jun 17 $510 −$796 -156%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - Journey Group D Jun 17 $0 −$48 -31268%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Astana Group S Jun 17 $845 −$1,335 -158%
Will Trump say "Crimea" or "Donetsk" during Zelensky events on August Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $213 −$213 -100%
LoL: Oh My God vs LNG Esports - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $2 −$26 -1281%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular BUY BESTIA 70¢ $197 10m
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner BUY BESTIA 71¢ $62 10m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 91¢ $9 40m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 91¢ $70 40m
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill - Map 2 Winner BUY KOLESIE 91¢ $127 41m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 65¢ $195 1h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 46¢ $135 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $27 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $28 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $14 2h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 56¢ $43 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $233 2h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 96¢ $24 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 96¢ $58 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 88¢ $4 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 88¢ $9 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Nemesis 88¢ $71 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $192 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 71¢ $230 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $7 7h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playo BUY Team Nemesis 69¢ $21 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 30¢ $42 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 Academy 30¢ $106 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $153 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $204 7h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 Academy 72¢ $3 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,394.01 · official $1,388.17 (match) · 3500 history records