Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:21:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x149f…6271 world 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 472d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 27% +$2
finance 8% $0
politics 8% $0
sports 4% $0
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +3.4% -6.4% 29% 14% -9.4%
≤30d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 8% -9.8%
≤90d 13 +0.3% -9.2% 31% 8% -9.8%
all 34 -0.7% -10.2% 47% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.8% 3% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

472d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 34
History coverage472d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $46 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $20 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 21 $4 +$1 +25%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $32 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $49 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 27 $44 $0 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 26 $41 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $3 $0 -15%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 25 $26 −$2 -6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 24 $46 +$1 +2%
Will Juventus win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +21%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 +2%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Will Google have the top AI model on April 30? May 06 $2 −$1 -75%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 03 $5 $0 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair? Apr 30 $3 $0 +2%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 30 $7 $0 +3%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2025 National League Championshi Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Apr 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the most seats in Nova Scotia in the n Apr 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Apr 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the second most seats in the next Cana Apr 27 $12 $0 +2%
Will the PPC win 2 seats in the next Canadian Election? Apr 27 $11 $0 -0%
Will Péter Erdő be the next pope? Apr 26 $11 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $13 +$1 +5%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 26 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $13 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April? Mar 19 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $6 9m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $39 9m
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 54¢ $46 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $20 9h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 10h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 38h
Israel closes its airspace by July 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 40h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $29 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 83¢ $32 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $6 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 44¢ $14 3d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $20 3d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 18¢ $3 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $1 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 18¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $45 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $45 5d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $20 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $24 27d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $44 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $32 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $9 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $13 27d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $28 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 117 history records