Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:55:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x149e…4c62 crypto 19 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (51 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$449 (+42%) realized +$453 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +177% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +113% what you keep after slip
Net edge+113%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate29%5W / 12L
Drawdown59%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day51.0pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 85% +$353
politics 6% −$10
world 4% −$2
other 4% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (51 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+150.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +176.9% +150.5% 29% 24% -3.2%
≤30d 17 +176.9% +150.5% 29% 24% -3.2%
≤90d 17 +176.9% +150.5% 29% 24% -3.2%
all 17 +176.9% +150.5% 29% 24% -3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover51.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +150.5% 24% -3.2%
10% ← realistic here +126.5% 18% -12.4%
15% +104.6% 12% -20.9%
20% +84.6% 12% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +177% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +422% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$175 vs −$45 · ×3.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.64 per $1 lost it wins $1.64
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$453
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses5 / 12
Open positions2
Markets (closed)17 / 19
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day51.0
Drawdown59%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $23 $20 −$3 (-12%)
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 24 $16 +$2 +10%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 24 $51 −$17 -34%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $10 −$8 -79%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 24 $15 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 24 $42 −$11 -26%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 24 $16 −$1 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 24 $47 −$2 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 24 $92 −$89 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $121 −$115 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $48 −$45 -94%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 24 $52 −$9 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $108 +$26 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 24 $231 −$109 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 24 $122 −$116 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$392 +7321%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$455 +1772%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 44m
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $8 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET SELL Down 61¢ $17 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 50m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $6 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $15 51m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $6 52m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $5 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 18¢ $6 53m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 54m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Down 37¢ $15 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 34¢ $16 55m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 12¢ $2 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $18 57m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 59m
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Down 62¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $10 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $14 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 2¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.01 · official $34.01 (match) · 51 history records