Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:48:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
14 0x149a…ce92 crypto 119 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$76 (+3%) realized +$76 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate81%95W / 23L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$40
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 47% −$1
other 38% +$31
tech 8% −$4
politics 6% +$24
sports 1% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 116 +7.0% -3.2% 80% 39% -8.0%
≤30d 118 +8.0% -2.3% 81% 39% -7.2%
≤90d 118 +8.0% -2.3% 81% 39% -7.2%
all 118 +8.0% -2.3% 81% 39% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 39% -7.2%
10% -11.6% 21% -16.1%
15% -20.1% 15% -24.2%
20% -28.0% 10% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$5 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$76
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses95 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)118 / 119
History coverage13d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 118 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$7 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $60 −$1 -2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $190 +$3 +2%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $5 +$8 +152%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $175 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $150 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 +$2 +57%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +9%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $150 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $11 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 $0 -4%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +23%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $19 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $13 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 48m
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 53m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL 20¢ $3 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 90¢ $59 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 91¢ $60 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 60¢ $10 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 98¢ $170 17h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $176 19h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 100¢ $175 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET SELL Up 96¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $3 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 68¢ $10 29h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $5 29h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $20 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $150 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $15 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 78¢ $6 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 94¢ $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 43h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $3 44h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 100¢ $11 45h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 304 history records