Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:00:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x149a…ede3 other 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$15 (-14%) realized −$16 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate73%8W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Kalshi-fit8%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$18
crypto 6% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)+1.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +12.6% +1.8% 73% 73% -27.3%
≤30d 11 +12.6% +1.8% 73% 73% -27.3%
≤90d 11 +12.6% +1.8% 73% 73% -27.3%
all 11 +12.6% +1.8% 73% 73% -27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.8% 73% -27.3%
10% -7.9% 64% -34.3%
15% -16.8% 55% -40.6%
20% -25.0% 45% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$12 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses8 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage6d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit8%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 52¢ 55¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $27 −$26 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $6 +$3 +55%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$3 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$3 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +101%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$1 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $27 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $6 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $6 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $6 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $9 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 49¢ $4 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 78¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.26 · official $27.26 (match) · 21 history records