Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:56:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1494…a7cf sports 1623 markets active 0h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$52 (+0%) realized +$52 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate99%1598W / 22L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% +$18
weather 20% +$16
other 17% +$13
crypto 3% +$3
finance 2% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 188 -0.4% -9.9% 96% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 1450 -0.0% -9.5% 98% 0% -9.5%
all 1620 +0.0% -9.5% 99% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.5%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.68 per $1 lost it wins $2.68
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$52
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)99%
Wins / losses1598 / 22
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1620 / 1623
History coverage99d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1620 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs Leo Team (+6.5) Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Portugal to win the second half? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 3 Scotland? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Morocco? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: BASEMENT BOYS vs Gaming By Legends (BO3) - ROG Journey Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Rahm finish in the Top 5 at the 2026 U.S. Open? BUY No 100¢ $50 16m
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 100¢ $50 1h
Will Brazil finish last in Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group St BUY No 100¢ $31 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 100¢ $50 2h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex - Map 2 Winner BUY Paper Rex 100¢ $50 12h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Will South Africa win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $50 24h
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy - Map 1 Winner BUY YFP Gaming 100¢ $50 28h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: 100 Thieves (-6.5) vs Leo Team (+6.5) BUY Leo Team 100¢ $50 31h
Will Lorenzo Musetti be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Will Tomáš Macháč be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $50 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 100¢ $50 2d
Portugal to win the second half? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 100¢ $50 2d
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $50 2d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Svyatoslav Gulin BUY Kilian Feldbausch 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $50 2d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 100¢ $50 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 3d
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 100¢ $50 3d
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
Royan: Ognjen Milic vs Thomas Faurel BUY Thomas Faurel 100¢ $50 4d
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 9-15? BUY Yes 100¢ $50 4d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 100¢ $50 5d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 100¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Japan? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 3 Japan? BUY No 100¢ $50 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.24 · official $81.24 (match) · 3370 history records