Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:38:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
14 0x1494…7551 crypto 85 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$22 · open −$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate67%56W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$1
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$17
sports 7% −$24
other 4% +$7
world 1% +$10
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 +1.3% -8.3% 70% 53% -9.0%
≤30d 83 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 52% -10.8%
≤90d 83 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 52% -10.8%
all 83 -0.1% -9.7% 67% 52% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 52% -10.8%
10% -18.3% 30% -19.3%
15% -26.2% 19% -27.1%
20% -33.4% 12% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$8
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses56 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)83 / 85
History coverage24d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Up 64¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$4 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +15%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$2 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $21 −$20 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $21 +$7 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $21 $0 -1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$7 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $117 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $39 +$8 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $61 +$12 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $27 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$10 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $41 +$11 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $21 +$3 +17%
Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston Jun 16 $2 +$1 +37%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$2 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$5 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $16 +$11 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $15 +$4 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Up 3¢ $0 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $8 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $6 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $6 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $6 37m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $5 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $4 53m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $4 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $5 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $4 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $6 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 5h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $2 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.01 (match) · 213 history records