Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

14
0x1493…e3e1
other · 94 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$573 +29%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$553 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$140
Realized+$553
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses39 / 46
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions9
Markets (closed)85 / 94
History coverage144d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit41%
Chart Positions 9 History 85 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$57
7 days−$57
14 days−$57
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 47¢ 48¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 61¢ 62¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 43¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will FC Metz vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? Yes 27¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-03-18? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
US government shutdown Saturday? No 22¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? Yes 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Mavericks Warriors 61¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bulls vs. Pacers Bulls 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will CA Unión win on 2026-01-22? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-03-18? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Hornets vs. Magic Magic 69¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $61 −$60 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$23 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$13 +65%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 18 $20 +$24 +119%
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $10 +$15 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? May 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? May 13 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? May 13 $30 −$30 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? May 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 13 $20 +$34 +165%
Will FC Metz vs. FC Lorient end in a draw? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC end in a draw? May 09 $10 +$30 +291%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-10? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sevilla FC vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona end in a draw? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-09? May 07 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Levante UD vs. CA Osasuna end in a draw? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $31 +$2 +6%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $25 +$19 +73%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? May 03 $20 +$19 +93%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $30 +$68 +226%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $51 −$5 -11%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $129 +$173 +134%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 28 $30 +$30 +101%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 19 $20 +$47 +238%
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026? Apr 16 $30 +$57 +188%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $50 +$73 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $50 +$43 +86%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 09 $10 −$10 -98%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw? Apr 08 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France win on 2026-03-26? Mar 27 $25 +$32 +127%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? Mar 23 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 23 $130 +$127 +98%
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% +$494
sports 19% +$30
world 7% +$20
crypto 2% +$10
politics 0% −$7
finance 0% +$6
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 12h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $20 39h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $20 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $20 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $30 3d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 32d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 32d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 32d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 32d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 32d
Will Everton FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 53¢ $10 32d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 60¢ $20 32d
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-05-16? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 32d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 32d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $20 32d
Will RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 32d
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 32d
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 32d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 32d
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 32d
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -28.7% -35.5% 33% 33% -60.8%
≤30d 8 +45.7% +31.8% 75% 75% +15.2%
≤90d 57 +4.9% -5.1% 42% 42% +23.7%
all 85 +7.7% -2.6% 46% 46% +17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 46% +17.6%
10% -11.9% 45% +6.3%
15% -20.4% 42% -3.9%
20% -28.2% 42% -13.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.09 · official $140.10 (match) · 140 history records