Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:46:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

14 0x1492…5430 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$24 (+15%) realized +$11 · open +$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%1W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$39per market

Trades / day5.0pace

Fees−$0est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$73now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+37.6%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	+52.1%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%
≤30d	1	+52.1%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%
≤90d	1	+52.1%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%
all	1	+52.1%	+37.6%	100%	100%	+37.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.0 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+37.6%	100%	+37.6%
10%	+24.4%	100%	+24.4%
15%	+12.4%	100%	+12.4%
20%	+1.4%	100%	+1.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +52% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +52% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$24 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$73

Realized+$11

Unrealized+$13

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses1 / 0

Est. fees paid−$0

Open positions2

Markets (closed)1 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$39

Trades / day5.0

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 1 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	71¢	86¢	$50	$60	+$10 (+20%)
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	Austria	46¢	60¢	$10	$13	+$3 (+32%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 17	$45	+$24	+52%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Spread: Austria (-1.5)	BUY Austria	46¢	$10	1h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	71¢	$50	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	100¢	$69	1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	65¢	$45	4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	BUY	48¢	$51	4h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.36 · official $123.36 · 5 history records