Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
14 0x1491…9f27 weather 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 147d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+0%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate66%35W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 98% +$20
sports 1% $0
other 1% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤30d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
≤90d 1 +1.9% -7.8% 100% 0% -7.8%
all 53 -8.9% -17.6% 66% 53% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 53% -9.3%
10% -25.5% 38% -18.0%
15% -32.7% 25% -25.9%
20% -39.3% 13% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% too few recent
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$24 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

147d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses35 / 18
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage147d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 53 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 23 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe Feb 15 $79 +$47 +59%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe Feb 14 $36 −$36 -100%
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $16 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr Feb 07 $28 +$5 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 23°F or below on February 4 Feb 07 $50 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe Feb 07 $40 +$25 +63%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Fe Feb 07 $94 +$14 +15%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Feb 07 $84 +$25 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February Feb 07 $95 +$19 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe Feb 07 $121 +$9 +7%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Feb 04 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe Feb 04 $82 +$37 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February Feb 04 $18 +$8 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on February Feb 04 $42 +$3 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February Feb 03 $53 −$53 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Feb 03 $80 −$80 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February Feb 03 $18 +$6 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 30-31°F on February Feb 03 $19 +$6 +30%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31-32°F on February 2 Feb 03 $12 +$3 +28%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 29-30°F on February 2 Feb 03 $22 +$2 +8%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 33-34°F on February 2 Feb 03 $35 +$26 +74%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe Feb 02 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 56-57°F on February 1 Feb 02 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 54-55°F on February 1 Feb 02 $20 +$4 +22%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 22-23°F on February 1 Feb 02 $22 +$4 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February Feb 02 $16 +$10 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February Feb 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 31 Feb 01 $5 +$2 +35%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 35-36°F on February 2 Feb 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 28-29°F on February Feb 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on Ja Feb 01 $29 +$12 +42%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Ja Feb 01 $42 +$8 +20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on Ja Feb 01 $50 +$35 +70%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 24-25°F on February 1 Jan 31 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 59°F or below on February 2? Jan 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be 53°F or below on February 1? Jan 31 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 66-67°F on January 30 Jan 31 $9 +$3 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 70-71°F on January 30 Jan 31 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 72-73°F on January 30 Jan 31 $21 +$2 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 62-63°F on January 31 Jan 31 $30 +$12 +39%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 16-17°F on Ja Jan 31 $38 +$16 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 64-65°F on January 31 Jan 30 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 20-21°F on Ja Jan 30 $24 +$8 +33%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 22-23°F on Ja Jan 30 $22 +$14 +61%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 68-69°F on January 30 Jan 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 18-19°F on Ja Jan 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 20°F or higher on Jan Jan 29 $13 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 24-25°F on Ja Jan 29 $24 −$5 -20%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 23°F or below on Janu Jan 28 $38 +$19 +49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju SELL No 73¢ $32 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on Ju BUY No 70¢ $32 2h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 2.5 AND Will United Sta BUY 28¢ $15 3d
Son Heungmin: 1+ goals AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY 13¢ $5 4d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026 BUY 13¢ $10 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 38-39°F on Fe BUY No 69¢ $36 128d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 42-43°F on Fe BUY No 63¢ $79 129d
Will Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 134d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe BUY No 63¢ $7 138d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe BUY No 62¢ $8 138d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Fe BUY No 92¢ $11 138d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February BUY No 56¢ $27 139d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February BUY No 87¢ $45 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 30-31°F on Fe BUY No 61¢ $32 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 28-29°F on Fe BUY No 86¢ $83 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe BUY No 91¢ $53 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe BUY No 75¢ $36 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe BUY No 58¢ $40 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr BUY No 85¢ $19 139d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 31°F or below on Febr BUY No 84¢ $8 139d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 26-27°F on February BUY No 72¢ $26 140d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February BUY No 80¢ $49 140d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 23°F or below on February 4 BUY No 94¢ $50 140d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 24-25°F on February BUY No 70¢ $18 140d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 22-23°F on February BUY No 93¢ $42 140d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 36-37°F on Fe BUY No 95¢ $68 140d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe BUY No 78¢ $48 140d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe BUY No 62¢ $40 140d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 34-35°F on Fe BUY No 64¢ $55 140d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 32-33°F on Fe BUY No 62¢ $46 140d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records